Skip to main content

Crew Cut Clegg makes his case

Speeches at political conferences often fall flat, and the irritating hullabaloo that usually surrounds the speech of a party leader on these occasions usually makes me feel somehow cheated.

Who really cares if there were eight standing ovations from a party for its leader, or even twelve? It always strikes me as false anyway. I remember Paddy Ashdown coming off stage at a rally which had ended with fireworks and balloons and much razzmatazz and wryly muttering that it only needed elephants to make it into a circus. Yet sometimes a leader's speech can indeed be significant. David Cameron's speech in the Autumn of 2007 that made Gordon Brown recalculate his electoral prospects- a recalculation that seems to have acquired terminal significance after Brown was dubbed a "bottler", for example. Strangely, although much more low key, Nick Clegg may have done something similar over the weekend.

It was not just Clegg's new hairstyle, a much more distinctive crew cut, that marked out this speech as a new direction. It was also the integrated policy approach: it was the integration of a whole new set of policies. Under Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrats have gained much needed economic credibility, but Clegg also managed to draw a radical thread through the Liberal Democrat programme. He laid out once unthinkable policies, such as nationalisation of the Banks, but he also demonstrated why such policies were not only quite sensible, but actually necessary. The programme he outlined was measured and practical. It sounded like a programme for power.

We have now just over one year until the most likely election date.

The electoral system requires a substantial lead in votes - roughly 10%- before the Conservatives can gain a bare majority in the House of Commons. The polls remain volatile. It is by no means impossible that the Liberal Democrats actually do better than their showing in 2005. Under such circumstances, the chances of either Labour or Tory gaining a majority fall substantially.

We are not there yet- but then a lot can happen in 15 months. What Nick Clegg showed in his speech was not only a distinct appetite for the fight, but a clear idea of what the Liberal Democrats would do if given an opportunity for power. I suspect that far from being squeezed and written off, the Liberal Democrats may enter the last year of this Parliament in a much stronger position than any of the last three years.

After having been ignored and derided by our political opponents, the significance and substance of Cleggs' speech is the credibility which he clearly believes that the party has gained.

That could prove to be very significant, very soon.

Comments

Newmania said…
In elections where there is a change of direction the Liberal vote gets squeezed. You , a fan of PR , like the idea of people voting with no idea what they are voting for .
Voters take a different view and tend to react against the idea of the least popular Party holding the most power.
I think this preference for a direct say will manifest itself again
Cicero said…
Perhaps you might translate this one into English?
Anonymous said…
A hung Parliament would be a disaster because it could be likely to result in a conservative majority in England and a Lib/Lab coalition in government, and an unresolved West Lothian Question.

You really don't want to go down this route if you value the future of the UK, as I do. Let's have an outright majority for one party or the other, not LibDem footsy-tootsy with the two main parties.

Popular posts from this blog

Concert and Blues

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop

Media misdirection

In the small print of the UK budget we find that the Chancellor of the Exchequer (the British Finance Minister) has allocated a further 15 billion Pounds to the funding for the UK track and trace system. This means that the cost of the UK´s track and trace system is now 37 billion Pounds.  That is approximately €43 billion or US$51 billion, which is to say that it is amount of money greater than the national GDP of over 110 countries, or if you prefer, it is roughly the same number as the combined GDP of the 34 smallest economies of the planet.  As at December 2020, 70% of the contracts for the track and trace system were awarded by the Conservative government without a competitive tender being made . The program is overseen by Dido Harding , who is not only a Conservative Life Peer, but the wife of a Conservative MP, John Penrose, and a contemporary of David Cameron and Boris Johnson at Oxford. Many of these untendered contracts have been given to companies that seem to have no notewo

Bournemouth absence

Although I had hoped to get down to the Liberal Democrat conference in Bournemouth this year, simple pressure of work has now made that impossible. I must admit to great disappointment. The last conference before the General Election was always likely to show a few fireworks, and indeed the conference has attracted more headlines than any other over the past three years. Some of these headlines show a significant change of course in terms of economic policy. Scepticism about the size of government expenditure has given way to concern and now it is clear that reducing government expenditure will need to be the most urgent priority of the next government. So far it has been the Liberal Democrats that have made the running, and although the Conservatives are now belatedly recognising that cuts will be required they continue to fail to provide even the slightest detail as to what they think should guide their decisions in this area. This political cowardice means that we are expected to ch