Cicero's Songs

The 2010 general election has certainly had its twists and turns, culminating in a cliffhanger result. Now, however, it is clear what the shape of the new government will be: a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. It is not going to be an easy ride. However, the impact of Liberal Democrat voices around the cabinet table could well be profound. In any event, the very nature of a coalition will mean a more open kind of politics. There is also the matter of electoral reform: a referendum has been conceded by the Conservatives as part of the government programme. There is now an agreed programme on education - where in truth the parties' policies were not that different. It is the economy that is now the most important focus, and with Vince Cable taking a senior role, we can at least hope for some coherence and forward thinking here. The two exhausted negotiating teams should be congratulated on coming out with a detailed programme. Nick Clegg should be congratulated on sticking f...

The vituperation falling upon the Liberal Democrats from the Conservative press is not a pretty sight. The people have spoken, and now it is up to the politicians that they have elected to behave responsibly and calmly in order to create a government that will serve out the Parliament and establish a stable framework for the decisions that must now be taken to strengthen our economy and our politics. The Conservatives have offered a coalition beyond a confidence and supply agreement, and that is -at least on the surface- a handsome gesture. Labour have removed their leader, knowing that the British public would not tolerate his return to office. However the mathematics of the new Parliament does not permit Labour to form anything but an unstable and fractious multi-party coalition. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have more in common in their approach to the economy too. Nevertheless, certain figures within the Liberal Democrats, such as Sir Menzies Campbell and Baroness Wil...

I was only campaigning for the General Election during the last week, but staying up for nearly thirty hours on election day left me slightly groggy. Meanwhile after the utter exhaustion of months of campaigning- David Cameron apparently solidly for the last two days- our political leaders have been plunged into a process that requires acute political judgement. David Laws looks like he has lost about 15 kilos- I suspect that none of the figures now being forced to discuss the formation of the next government are in particularly great shape. Nevertheless the Liberal Democrats have a particular responsibility. Even though the result looks disappointing compared to the polls during the campaign, it still led to many thousands more people voting Liberal Democrat compared to 2005. The same number of votes, differently distributed could have given 10 more seats or 10 less- the electoral system does not reflect the democratic will: it is a lottery. It must be changed. The question is whethe...

A long night at the count for Gordon, where Malcolm Bruce was able to hold his seat in fine style: a tribute to a fine local MP. Equally Sir Robert Smith held West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine in the face of a determined challenge. However, across the country, though the people may have spoken, what they are saying has been ignored. The Liberal Democrats won many thousand more votes than last time, but we must content ourselves with a smaller Parliamentary representation. The defence of the First Past the Post electoral system is that is is supposed to deliver more stable governments, albeit at the expense of the democratic will. Now, it is difficult to establish what should happen. The fact is that the country must now face considerable uncertainty in the face of such a distorted result. The difference between the Liberal Democrats holding 55 seats and holding more than 70 seats is a bare few hundred votes. This makes a farce of our democracy. Without electoral reform, Britain can ...

Arisen early in order to deliver Good Morning leaflets across the constituency. With a possible pause for a famed Lib Dem Bacon Roll around 11 (and a snooze in the late afternoon) I guess it will be solid all the way through until the count tonight. I will be in the Aberdeen Conference Centre, which is also in the constituency, acting as a polling agent. So I hope to see, not merely the re-election of Malcolm Bruce and Sir Robert Smith, but also the election of many new Liberal Democrat MPs too. It has been a long campaign- after all it really began when Gordon Brown became Prime Minister- Yet this may prove to be not the culmination of such a long period, but the beginning of a new era of British politics. The Russians have an expression: "we hoped for the best, but it turned out like always". For the Liberal Democrats and the Liberals before that has been the story of successive elections. This time the campaign has been different: the success of Nick Clegg has done more t...

No one knows what will happen in the general election tomorrow- not the pollsters, not the politicians, and probably not the voters. There is an opportunity to make a radical change in the way our country is run. There is an opportunity to turn away from the destructive political culture, rooted in the vested interests of the two party system. There is an opportunity to create a more open political system which can look more widely for talent to tackle the problems that we face- experts with real experience well beyond the political bubble. The question is will the British people make the leap and seize the opportunity. They could turn to David Cameron- a product of the system to his finger tips. They could stick with Gordon Brown- a Prime Minister with a list of failed polices that is now long indeed. The political class is in confusion. It is a confusion caused by the Liberal Democrats. There is something new on offer: and it is the wisdom of Liberal economics rooted in the politics...

As the campaign enters its last hours we continue to canvass and leaflet on the ground, slightly oblivious to the air war going on in the media. At the end of each day we have returned home late and absorbed the impact of such news as there is. The Tory press are in overdrive: spinning so wildly for their chosen party that it is almost comic. The latest earth shattering news is that Simon Cowell has- apparently- endorsed the Conservatives. Hmm ... So a perma -tanned multi-millionaire who has built his rather questionable reputation on the most tawdry and manipulative television supports the Tories. I am sure a nation will mourn. In fact the press has practically become a joke- quite often they no longer even bother with facts. Their stock is not only misinformation- the spreading of half-truths and distortions- but disinformation- complete fabrication. I was once told that politicians complaining about the press is like the rest of us complaining about the weather- I suppose it is tr...

In recent weeks a serious of Earth tremors in California have reminded people there that the state is still waiting for "the Big One"- a move on a major fault line, like the famed San Andreas fault, that would cause a once-in-a-century massive Earthquake. It was 1906 when the last major 'quake took place, causing the near-destruction of the City of San Francisco, and such 'quakes have historically taken place roughly once every 90 years: after 104 years we are still waiting, and the underground pressures are building up to ever higher levels. When the fault ruptures, the size of the earthquake could indeed be a real monster. Nor is California alone. In Japan, the roughly 60 year cycle of major quakes in the Tokyo bay area has also been broken: the last 'quake was the great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, which also caused massive destruction to the Japanese capital. Istanbul is also waiting for an overdue earthquake. The point is that these events could take place t...

In the four-seasons-in-one-day weather of the Aberdeenshire coast I get into the rhythm of the election campaign. The mechanics of leafleting, avoiding the problems that dogs and tight letter boxes may bring. My mind wanders as the repetition of gate opening, walking to the door with folded leaflet ready, posting and returning builds up. First tens, then twenties, odds, evens, side streets, all build up into a pattern. Then walk one, walk two, walk three; the slight tiredness of being in the open air, the wind, the sun, the occasional spits and spots of rain. Thus leafleting. With canvassing, the organisation of the clipboard, the check of the name, the confident walk to the door- more external than internal- the knock on the door, of the ringing of the bell. "I'm calling on behalf"... "can we rely on your support this time"... "Do you think?" "Thank you for your time". Blue doors, red doors, different men, different women, and the responses...

Yesterday is not a day that Gordon Brown will want to relive. He misheard a Labour supporting widow talking about immigrants: she said "flocking", not the well-known expletive. He ranted a little about it in his limousine, and sine his microphone was still live, it was picked up. He then went to make a probably rather insincere apology- which since Mrs Duffy will not now vote Labour was clearly not really accepted. This frankly trivial incident has nevertheless led to the biggest media furore of the entire election campaign, and people are talking now about a Labour meltdown. Meanwhile, something far more serious has been relatively unreported. Yesterday the European sovereign debt crisis took a drastic turn for the worse. The Greek government can not stabilise their finances without growth, but the collapse of global trade has destroyed their shipping sector, and their failure to tackle their competitiveness problems now makes Greek unit labour costs more than twice that of...

Amidst all the media hype it is easy to get lost amid smoke and mirrors: The fact is that the betting and the reality of this election is that the Conservatives are set for a majority government, even upon no more than 36% of the vote. The fact that the Tories genuinely believe that 36% qualifies them for 100% of the power is why the Conservatives should not be given such power. The Liberal Democrats are going to face attacks from all sides in the last week of this election: and we are more than capable of dealing with the smears and untruths that the other sides are spreading. The fact is that the economic crisis is systemic, and so is the political crisis. Swapping red for blue will not change the system, it will merely validate it. Unless the Liberal Democrats can disrupt the system, then the Tories will win- and within 6 months will be the most unpopular government in British history. The deep desire of the British people is to change the system that allowed Tory MPs to claim for ...

The spectacular breakdown of the financial industry and the drastic economic upheavals that have followed, left most politicians struggling simply to keep up with events. The exposure of a ramshackle, and slightly corrupt system of expenses in Parliament has hugely discredited the political class. All of this left voters very angry, fearful and frustrated. The general feeling is one of contempt for politicians in general and -as they were in government- for Labour in particular. So, despite the fact that Conservatives were more guilty than most on the expenses farrago, and despite the fact that George Osborne has earned little more than mockery amongst business and financial leaders, the Conservatives could have looked a reasonably fair bet to take over the government. However, even that would not have been easy: the electoral system, which the Tories still support, nevertheless has been working against them in recent years. The number of seats that the Tories need to win is quite di...

How much worse can it get for Labour? The trend in the polls looks pretty awful for them, and there is clearly no atmosphere of peace and love in their campaign either. Judging by the ground war, Labour seem very short of money and very short of activists. There is a real chance that Labour will come third in votes already. The question that is going to be asked pretty soon is whether the scale of the Labour collapse gets so big that they start to lose a large number of seats. This asks two more questions: which seats and to which of the other two parties ? A Hung Parliament is still pretty likely - if the polls stay roughly where they are. If, however, Labour falls significantly below their current polling average of about 27%, which was thought to be pretty much their core vote, then it could get pretty catastrophic for them. In 1997 we saw Labour elected on an unexpected and unprecedented landslide. Could 2010 see them removed in an unprecedented and unexpected obliteration? For...

Just to add my sixpence worth on the second leaders' TV debate. I think Brown and Cameron raised their games. Nick Clegg was a bit flatter than last week, but he was still scored as either first (by most observers) or very close second to Cameron (by Tory supporters). Despite the attempt to smear the Liberal Democrats back down in the polls, and to launch personal attacks on Clegg ahead of the debate, Nick Clegg was generally unruffled and again did well. That Cameron did better than last time is not enough: he needed to obliterate the memory of the last bravura performance from Nick Clegg- and he couldn't do it. Although he tried to talk to the camera, he was more clunky- it was obviously something he had been told to do, and it looked uncomfortable. This was not the game changer that it needed to be for the Tories. I think that the third debate will not be a game changer either. We will need to absorb the impact of the concerted Conservative smear campaign against the Libe...

I do not think I have ever seen such a concerted attack by the press against one man in a single day. The range of headlines from the Daily Mail "Clegg in Nazi slur on Britain", The Sun "Wobble Democrat", The Daily Telegraph "Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem donors and the payments into his private account", The Daily Express "Clegg's crazy immigration policy", the FT , "Clarke unleashed to attack Liberal Democrats", Metro "Lib Dems plan new house tax". The problem for the press is that the attack is so random, it looks rather like a drunk in a pub car park: full of noisy rage, but not actually focused enough to land much of a punch on their opponent. The message from this spasm in the newspapers is not that the Liberal Democrats are crazy, corrupt, or even Nazis (a sure sign that the Mail has lost it there, I think): it is that a large block of vested right wing interests are desperate to stop the Liberal Democrats at any co...

As another poll puts the Liberal Democrats on top, it is pretty clear that whatever happens over the next few days, the party is going to reach levels of support not seen for nearly a century. To be absolutely frank, it is a fantastic but daunting prospect. The party will immediately face two crises: one will be the constitutional wrangling of a minority Parliament, the second will be the continuing economic crisis. Barring a fluke, there seems no chance for the Conservatives or Labour to form a majority government, and the Parliament seems set to be "well hung" (not a tribute to Nick Clegg's supposed potency, but to the fact that the Liberal Democrats could choose between the other two parties as to who they wanted to work with). Indeed there is an outside chance that the Liberal Democrats could end up with a plurality of seats, though this is still, for the moment, less likely. In any event, the sharp surge in support for the Liberal Democrats of the kind the polls a...

Interesting times to be a Liberal Democrat. One feature of the campaign that is only slowly being picked up is that the contest is shifting from the old battlefield of newspaper columns to the new battlefield of the new media: not just blogs, but Facebook and the rest of it. This is undermining a key advantage for both Labour and the Conservatives: the influence of the press. At the last election only The Independent was prepared to endorse the Liberal Democrats, while all the others endorsed to other two parties. That position seems set to be repeated. The Conservatives will gain the support of the Murdoch media, and doubtless hang on to the motley crew of the Daily Express , the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph . Labour will keep the Daily Mirror and The Guardian. None of it may make any difference. The fact is that the old system of newspapers endorsing political parties (and often gaining knighthoods and peerages for their editors) smacks of 19th century patronage. This e...

The opinion polls have made very interesting reading this morning. I imagine that the Conservative and Labour leadership and their advisers are feeling somewhat concerned about their prospects. Both parties are going backwards in this campaign. The problem that both Labour and the Conservatives face is that the surge in support for the Liberal Democrats is not just about the good performance that Nick Clegg put in to the first television debate- though this may have come as a surprise to them, used as they are to Prime Minister's question time, where he is usually marginalised. The fact is that Liberal Democrat support was already growing well before the debate took place: Vince Cable had already won the Chancellors debate, and the Liberal Democrat manifesto was also well received. The " Clegg surge" has not come out of a clear sky: there had already been signs that the Liberal Democrats were set for a good performance. The other two parties are now facing something th...

Victor Hugo once wrote that " On résiste à l'invasion des armées; on ne résiste pas à l'invasion des idées", which is usually translated as "There is no power on Earth that can resist an idea whose time has come ". Amidst the Liberal Democrat euphoria after the decisive victory of Nick Clegg in the leader's debate, a few people have become rather excitable about the prospects for the party this election. The immediate, dramatic moves in the first opinion polls do not yet mean that the Liberal Democrats are poised for government. However, what they do mean is that the voters may now be prepared to listen the the party's ideas in a way that they were not doing previously. It may also mean that the threat from the Conservative Party in many of our own seats has now been checked- though even this is far from certain. It probably does mean that several hoped-for gains may now materialise. In short, the Liberal Democrats may be able to hold what they hav...

I see Ken Clarke believes that the Scottish Conservative manifesto should " strike a chord " with the Scottish people ... Alas I think he is mistaken , I think it is more likely to ring a bell - and the dwindling support for the Conservatives north of the border seems set to continue : having hoped for at least five seats , they are now favourites in only two . The Conservatives thus seem set to remain very much a party on the fringes of Scottish politics . People have not forgotten nor forgiven the outrageous way that the Conservatives behaved under both John Major and Margaret Thatcher . As we await the first television debate , it will be interesting to see if Mr . Cameron has truly " decontaminated " the Conservative brand - he doesn 't seem to have done so in Scotland at any rate.