Cicero's Songs

One of the most positive aspects of life in Estonia is that the average level of education is so high that you get used to people making good quality decisions. Intelligent, well-thought out government services, innovative and interesting technology and so on. This is why, when one does encounter Estonian examples of stupidity, it can be rather shocking.  There are small examples, such as allowing graffiti to get out of hand, which in the end creates far bigger and more expensive problems than an early zero tolerance policy does. There are bigger examples, such as the Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE) whose small minded, identity based political world view insults the visionary thinkers, such as Jaan Tonisson, who understood from the beginning that Estonian identity must rest on universal, European values. The identity politics of the barnyard that EKRE, Argentina's Peronist party and the SNP all, to varying degrees promote, can quickly descend into racist or homo...

I suppose it was inevitable that the opportunity to give the Liberal Democrats a good kicking was just too good to miss. never mind that the UK still has an upper house of Parliament that is partly hereditary and partly a mass of political cronies. Never mind that all parties are committed in theory to at least a partially elected upper house. In the end it was dirty politics and not high principle that won the day. As in so many decades past, the entrenched interests of political expediency stopped any real change. Yet it is yet another example of why the UK is in such a deep mess. Every political party publicly accepts the need to reform our constitution, whether that is for an English Parliament or for English regional/county government reform, or whether to turn the House of Lords into the national chamber, with the House of Commons being the English chamber- there are plenty of ideas of greater or lesser radicalism. In each case, the proposals insist on an elected House of Lor...

The problem with British government policy is that the civil servants are still working to the New Labour Playbook. "Eye-catching" announcements are made, usually with recycled, rather than new money which are supposed to give the impression that the government is purposefully shaping the agenda rather than simply waiting on events. Almost always these announcements involve spending, and whenever any idea of restructuring is mentioned, the necessary retrenchment is typically ignored. Except, of course, that Britain needs retrenchment. The reason why so many voters now believe the welfare system needs reducing, is because they have seen that it doesn't work. Often it has created a skivers charter, and placed innumerable bureaucratic obstacles in the way of those who actually wish to get work. Huge amounts of money have been wasted. The core of British bureaucracy, ironically enough, lies not with the spending departments but with the Treasury. As I have noted before,...

The usual suspects have been out in force on the subject of the British Chancellor's Autumn statement. The mostly left-wing commentators have been imploring Mr. Osborne to switch to Plan B. " The cuts"- they say- "are too severe, and will damage growth ".  I am almost tempted to say "what cuts?" In fact, "If only..." because, although the government has talked big on the subject of government spending cuts, the fact is that the deficit remains close to its record high, and every month that passes adds yet further billions onto the national debt, which is already stretched way beyond the normal limits for a AAA credit risk. The coalition has established credibility with the financial markets, and retained its AAA- for the time being- but it is still a question of statements of intent rather than goals that are being achieved. It is just as well that the UK government has gained a breathing space, because even compared to the peripheral E...

Although the attribution is contested, the aphorism " Academic politics is the most bitter and vicious form of politics, because the stakes are so low " is nowadays usually credited to Wallace Sayre, a political scientist at Columbia in the mid sixties. British politics is increasingly shrill, and as we enter the long run into the general election in 2010, it is already clear that we can expect the battle between Mr. Brown and Mr. Cameron to be one of the dirtiest campaigns on record. Yet in fact, although the struggle may be noisy, in the end it may ultimately change very little. The problem is now not so much the party of government, but the system of government that offers up such limited political choices. The current government has governed by ignoring the will of Parliament and the Conservatives, with their cosmetic commitment to local devolution will inflict further damage on Parliamentary authority. Of course, many will say that the expenses scandal means that Parliam...

In the 19th century MPs were not paid at all, but Parliament was at the centre of national life. Over time as the Parliament of landowners and lawyers also began to include simple employees, a small stipend was granted- and it remained small. Even now, back bench MPs only earn £64,766 a year. Meanwhile, even with allowances, they usually have to fund two places to live and two offices- in London and in their constituencies. They have to employ staff in both places too. By contrast all of the senior civil service grades earn a lot more than this, and of course do not have to fund their own office costs. As the journalists of the Daily Telegraph relish the power that their scoop on MPs expenses has brought them they should reflect that most of them too are better paid than MPs are. Now the Kelly report proposes to cut back MPs compensation still further. For example, it is suggested that Parliament will only pay for a rented one bedroom flat in London. This, together with the ban on empl...

The first years of David Cameron's leadership of the Conservatives have been a largely policy free zone. In that sense the Tories took a leaf out of the Tony Blair playbook: establish some kind of trust in the minds of the electorate and their votes will follow, even if they disagree with some aspect of your policies (which most voters will do). In that sense, the Conservative conference was a significant change of tack- George Osborne has been prepared to set out a clear policy of a pay freeze and deep cuts in public expenditure. For this he was lauded in the media as being rather brave. That the financial burden of the state is too large is now frankly pretty obvious, yet the way in which the Conservatives are likely to attempt to reform the public sector will most likely be counter productive, and will end up increasing the overall burden on the tax payer. For most Conservatives it is pretty much axiomatic that the private sector is a more efficient provider of services than th...

The Following is an article I wrote for one of Estonia's leading newspapers. It was written in conjunction with a conference on Direct Democracy in Tartu which I spoke at this morning. Estonia is entering a new era in her democratic history. As in so many other areas, Estonia is pioneering the use of technology in its political system. Gradually, the use of e-voting is beginning to take hold and, as ever higher numbers of people cast their votes securely over the Internet, many suggest that it is the key to greater popular participation in the political process. Of course, so far, these e-votes have only been cast in order to elect their political representatives. Now, however, the question is being asked as to whether these systems could now be used more widely, to make political decisions directly. Given the low cost and open access that Estonian voters now have to the Internet, it seems self evidently true that it will soon become very easy to create regular e-referendums; to in...

I am sure that large numbers of political anoraks are delighted by the unveiling of the new Conservative-led group in the European Parliament... It is, of course, a total joke. The Tory allies consist of the most marginal and irrelevant parties in the EU. They could not even get Bulgarians to join them.Their major allies are the PiS- Law and Justice party- in Poland: led by a man who proudly admits to not having a bank account, just before he says he would like to send gay men, like Alan Duncan and Iain Dale to jail, but only because he can't hang them. Even in Poland Jarek Kaczynski is a joke: in Britain he is, and should be, a ridiculous laughing stock. As for the Czech ODS: their former leader has been photographed showing his shortcomings to some attractive female in Signor Berlusconi's villa. (noticeably even Berlusconi's party find joining up with the Tories too embarrassing). The Czechs too are headed for electoral oblivion, indeed that does seem to be the uniting t...

Perhaps the oldest fraud in the financial system is the Pyramid scheme, a fraudulent operation that pays returns to investors out of the money paid by subsequent investors rather than from profit. In America, the Pyramid is known a the Ponzi scheme, after the name of one high profile fraudster of the 1920s. The principle is simple: the scheme usually offers abnormally high returns in order to entice new investors. The perpetuation of the high returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going. Yet the system is destined to collapse because the earnings, are less than the payments. Normally the authorities intervene, although in the case of the latest pyramid scandal- that of the "funds" run by Bernard Madoff - the scale of the losses is truly vast: an estimated $ 36 billion. Yet, despite the scale of Mr. Madoff's alleged crimes, there is an even bigger Ponzi scheme, much closer to home...

There is no hiding from the fact that Liberal Democrat hopes were not fulfilled in these local elections. Although the vote overall held up, in the places where it mattered, we were comprehensively outplayed- and not just by the Conservatives. For every gain like Eastbourne, Northampton and Hull, there were painful losses like Bournemouth, Waverley, North Devon, Torbay, South Norfolk, Windsor or Woking. We ended the evening four councils less than we began, and lost 246 councillors. So, disappointing... and we should give this pause for thought. This is the second year in a row where the Liberal Democrats have failed to make progress. Our vote was broadly static, as it was last year, but this year we saw more losses, as the FPTP system did not give us the rub of the greens. We are clearly being hurt by the Tory recovery, and the Conservatives on the face of it should have much to celebrate. They achieved a higher share of the vote and made around 900 gains, giving them control of 38 mo...

Once upon a time there was an Island country that had an independent civil service. This civil service attracted many good brains and so was a finely honed tool of administration. Senior leaders of the civil service were not extravagantly paid- indeed they usually earned less than their equivalent in the private sector, but there were regular perks: Knighthoods for the big bosses and good gongs for the rest that help to recompense the lack. In addition there was a pension that was non contributory and index linked, so overall the civil service was not that badly off. There was a certain "flexibility" too- since decision making was private mistakes could occasionally be overlooked and therefore not blight the careers of those involved: Ministers were responsible for their departments, and if the mistakes that were made were serious enough, then the Minister would have to carry the can and resign. As The Economist points out , this week , much has changed Over time the public ...

The last few weeks, since the publication of a poll in November suggesting that the majority of both Scots and English support independence , have seen the debate on the issue grow much hotter. This is very far from the first time, in recent years, that the majority of Scots have supported independence- indeed it was the usual state of affairs for much of the last ten years of the last Conservative period in government. Perhaps then that we should not be surprised to see that Iain Dale has been running a poll about whether Scottish "Devolution" has strengthened the Union , and even less surprised to see that 92% of the readers of Iain's blog think that it has not. I beg to differ. I passionately believe in the "claim of right" of the Scottish people to control their own affairs. I do not believe in Devolution- that implies power has been handed down to the Scottish people from on high. I believe in Home Rule- the free decision of Scotland to share its sovere...

Once again "Lepidus" issues a challenge for this blog to respond to. His basic point is that: "Manchester Withington [was] probably the most extraordinary Lib Dem result of all time. Bigger swings have been achieved, but really only in By-Elections. Tory vote drops by a third, John Leech elected. Take two: Islington South close marginal, Lib Dem vote rises but so does the Tory vote! Result: Emily Thornberry MP. That is is why Withington was won and I(slington)S(outh) not. There are scores of seats up the Country where Labour's machine has atrophied, with decent Tory votes but with the Lib Dems having surged into second. The Tory votes in such seats will indisputably be key as to your seat count. I bet Lord Rennard thinks so. Agree do you not......." But actually it seems self evident that I do agree, and we need to ensure that we can get votes from both Labour and the Conservatives. The point I am making in my rant is what we need these votes for . The battle fo...

Labour gets ever more mired in the cash for peerages mess. The Tories find themselves funded by obscure trusts in Liechtenstein. Questions continue about the Michael Brown affair amongst the Lib Dems. Some commentators now believe that political parties should be funded directly by the state. After all, goes the argument, it is necessary for the workings of the political system to have vigorous, well funded parties and it is better to have these openly funded rather than by foreign or other questionable sources. Bluntly, this is self serving bulls**t. If the political parties can not manage to fund themselves in a legal or orderly way, then I have no quarrel with the idea that they should go under. Why should what is, in effect, a private club that seeks to fund a massive advertising campaign every few years get its money from the state, that is to say, from everyone else? If Labour or Tories can not run themselves without recourse to unsustainable levels of debt, then tough- they will...