Cicero's Songs

James Sherr, the former head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, is a very distinguished analyst who understands the condition of Russia better than almost all the commentators on that subject. Over the years I have learned that his views of Russia ring more and more true. One idea that I find particularly compelling is the idea that Russia is in many ways an unreformed absolutist state, more similar to the time of the early Stuarts in Britain than to any modern political system.  Furthermore, far from modernizing Russia, the Soviet period set back Russian political reform to an even more primitive political era. The impact of this insight is to change the way that we analyse decision taking in Moscow.  Rational expectations must be put aside in favour of a psychological or even slightly mystical analysis. Thus we examine Russia's unfolding disaster in Ukraine. There have been several Western analysts who have argued that the attempted seizure of Ukraine is a...

In espionage the standard of proof is a variable measure. There are very few times that information can be said to be "beyond reasonable doubt". Nuances and circumstances acquire great significance and it requires an analyst with a deep sense of intuition to piece together an accurate narrative from small pieces of partial information. There may be much data, but to find the information it contains is like putting together a shattered mirror, where you do not know whether you have all the pieces. Thus intelligence can be a double-edged sword, and it is dangerous to rely purely on secret intelligence without bringing one's own sceptical biases into the equation.  Spies are much given to using two quotes from Sherlock Holmes: the first dictum is about positive truth: "once you eliminate the impossible, what ever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth". The second is "the curious incident of the dog in the night time" "the dog did noth...

After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the creation of a raft of new liberal and democratic states in 1989 and 1991, the argument about the values of the open society went into a kind of stasis. The debate was deemed by many to be closed, and the virtues of liberal democracy self-evidently triumphant. 25 years later that "end of history" seems at best more nuanced. At worst, the closed authoritarian model seems to have made a spectacular come-back. This blog references Cicero, and in previous posts I have explained why. I have feared for a long time that the values and virtues of democracy are being eroded from within and without. The fact is that mass societies can be manipulated and subverted. Vladimir Putin spends billions of dollars on propaganda, and while much of this is to persuade Russians not to challenge his regime, equally his purpose has been to undermine confidence in the states of Europe and North America that he deems to be his enemies. He is achieving a re...

Sir Robert Owen, as expected, has today filed his report into the murder of Alexander Litvinenko. The conclusions are stark: 1. I am sure that Mr Litvinenko did not ingest the polonium 210 either by accident or to commit suicide. I am sure, rather, that he was deliberately poisoned by others. 2.   I am sure that Mr Lugovoy and Mr Kovtun placed the polonium 210 in the teapot at the Pine Bar on 1 November 2006. I am also sure they did this with the intention of poisoning Mr Litvinenko. 3.   I am sure that the two men had made an earlier attempt to poison Mr Litvinenko, also using polonium 210, at the Erinys meeting on 16 October 2006. 4.   I am sure that Mr Lugovoy and Mr Kovtun knew that they were using a deadly poison (as opposed, for example, to a truth drug or a sleeping draught), and that they intended to kill Mr Litvinenko. I do not believe, however, that they knew precisely what the chemical that they were handling was, or the nature of all its prop...

The Russian President has a pattern of incredibly reckless behaviour- the attacks on Georgia, Ukraine, the threats against NATO and all of the rest of it. Yet in a coup-de-main that exceeds almost all of his recent gambles, Putin seems to be set on avoiding the consequences of his Ukrainian misadventure. However, not for the first time, both Putin and the West may be misreading each other. The conventional wisdom amongst the Putinologists is that that the entry into the Syrian imbroglio is a successful attempt to breach the wall of isolation that has been imposed against him since his invasion of Ukraine. In this school of thought, the Russian support for Assad is largely a bluff, and is essentially an attempt to widen the negotiation by catching the West once again off guard. However, unlike in Ukraine, Russia does have some short term and attainable goals in mind. The fact is that the intervention in the Middle East is a serious attempt to challenge the United States and Saudi g...

One way analysts have chosen to examine the dysfunctional political system of Russia is as a "power vertical" where closely linked economic and political interests share out the spoils of the economy. Like all models it is a simplification, but it has sometimes explained events that make no other sense. As the Russian forces in Ukraine have increased their hostile activity- the latest being a renewed offensive against Mariupol- there is now increasing evidence that the power vertical is less united than it has been for sometime. As I noted a few days ago, the campaigning season in Ukraine is getting short, and with only a few weeks left there is great pressure on the Kremlin to break the deadlock before further help can get to the Ukrainian armed forces and the balance of power turns more strongly against the invaders. What is true for the military may also be true for Russia's internal politics. The announcement that Yakunin may be running for the Federation Council s...

The increase in fighting in Eastern Ukraine is reaching levels not seen for some time. The pressure on the Putin regime is now significant. Essentially even a frozen conflict outcome will look like a defeat for the Kremlin, so the heat is on to find a solution that puts more of the region under Russian control and allows the illegal statelets that Russia has created a more sustainable future. To that end, the Russian state authorities are cracking down on their local satraps and imposing increasingly direct rule from Moscow- de facto annexation. However, in an attempt to create either a viable entity, or better still, the breakout that gives Russia the land bridge to Crimea they still clearly seek, the Russian armed forces are facing stiffer resistance from the Ukrainians than they expected. This is a problem, because if they can not break though before October then the contrary winds against them will probably force a significant change in direction. Rumours swirl that Putin is und...

On a day when Vladimir Putin threatens nuclear war to try to break up NATO , the painful and unnecessary deaths of at least 54 Russian sailors just emphasizes how cheap human life is in a country where people are simply giving up hope. It is a contemptible display from a government that is rapidly losing its grip on reality. Meanwhile a small glimpse of the nature of Russian propaganda has been given by former workers in Russia's "Troll's House" . The struggles within the regime are now increasingly open: the Russian chauvinism of some significant elements in the FSB versus the corruption of the Chechens. Ostensibly this is a struggle that pits ethnic Russians versus non-ethnic Russians, but in reality it is a straight forward battle for power. Putin may have found a modus vivendi for the time being, but the army is increasingly unhappy about the Ukrainian adventure- which according to some sources has now cost nearly 6000 Russian soldiers their lives, with si...

Since Vladimir Putin "resurfaced" on Monday, the most feverish speculation has died down. He has not been actually overthrown. However there is little doubt that his regime is facing serious problems. In a sense we can know this by the renewed blizzard of propaganda and misinformation being put out by the Kremlin lie machine : reporting and exaggerating splits between EU and NATO partners about the current Russian sanctions regime, for example. Then there is the report that Putin was prepared to use nuclear weapons over Crimea . Meanwhile the entire Russian northern fleet has gone on alert. The message is clear "I am dangerous, don't mess with me". Yet as some sources report that the Russian death toll in Ukraine now significantly exceeds the initial estimates, the fact that it is the Northern fleet is significant- threatening to the NATO exercise in the Baltic, but not a further threat to Ukraine. More to the point it is a distraction for a force which...

The murder of Boris Nemtsov is beginning to look like a catalyst for some significant upheaval in Russia.  The arrest of Chechen suspects initially looked like a lazy round up of the "usual suspects".  However it quickly became clear that the individuals detained by the FSB were not just ordinary Chechens but significant figures, very close to the Chechen strongman, Ramzan Kadyrov, who has enjoyed special privileges both in his home patch, but also across Russia, including Moscow. Privileges which were, of course, granted by Putin. The fact that the head of the FSB personally announced the arrests -a very unusual thing for him to do- suggests a major split between two of the critical pillars of Putinism: The FSB and Kadyrov's Chechens. This is now a major headache for Putin. At other crisis points -the Kursk disaster springs to mind- he has dropped out of sight and then returned, usually with increasing levels of ruthlessness, and, amid swirling rumours, that se...

When I first met Boris Nemtsov -he was then in his mid thirties- in addition to his obvious intelligence, he also possessed a glamour, which was not just a function of good looks, but also the determined way he had become anti-Soviet. He had begun by leading protests in his home town of Sochi and had steadily progressed so that by the last years of Boris Yeltsin, he had become mayor of Nizhni Novgorod and was in the process of being brought into the Kremlin. As such he might have become part of the corrupt cabal that ultimately- and disastrously- led to the emergence of the Putin regime. Instead, he chose a path that was both more principled and as his tragic assassination today has proven, more dangerous. Nemtsov spoke for the Western Russia, as opposed to the Scythian one of Stalin and Putin. He believed in rule of law and rule of the people and he held in contempt those who have subverted and stolen Russia for their own personal greed. Nemtsov was not merely a political critic of ...

After the Hollande-Merkel "peace" mission and Michael Fallon's "infelicitous" choice of words  about the Russian threat to the Baltic, it seemed that British detachment from both its allies, including the US, and the burgeoning Putin crisis was growing. In fact, the lack of involvement by the UK in the Minsk-2 debacle now looks prescient. Meanwhile the British decision to provide direct military assistance to the Ukrainian government is controversial, but the in face of the dumb insolence of the Putin government it is a pretty small step, albeit one with potentially momentous consequences for the endgame of the crisis. Meanwhile, notwithstanding the pressure of the Putinist lie machine and the further persecution of Navalny , it is becoming clear that the s ituation in Russia is deteriorating fast. Russia has chosen a direct challenge to the West, nuclear threats and all. However, the reaction from Washington and it now seems in London, is increasingly to ca...

In his recently published book, Bill Browder gives estimates of how much Vladimir Putin has stolen from his Russian fellow countrymen . The number he gives is a truly staggering $200 billion.  If this is even remotely true, it makes Putin one of the greatest thieves in human history.  We already know that Putin is presiding over a propaganda machine that rivals and even exceeds the worst that Josef Goebbels presided over. The use of propaganda is sophisticated and relativistic- Peter Pomerantsev in his book "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible" outlines just how pervasive and evil the Putinist lie machine has become. In the UK, the inquiry into the circumstances of the poisoning of Aleksander Litvinenko  has revealed that the British government has clear and direct evidence that Russian government agents acting under the orders of "the highest authority" carried out the murder of Litvinenko, even though he was a British citizen, and the murder was c...

Russia is refusing to back down in Ukraine. All out military force is being used in order to support the declared Russian military objective that Ukraine be defeated and divided. Civilians are being deliberately targeted and the attacks on a major power station and other industrial operations is a clear attempt to destroy the Ukrainian economy. Put simply, the Russian Federation is engaged in a huge act of aggression against a peaceful neighbour. Despite sanctions, and despite increasing economic weakness Vladimir Putin stands defiant. In Britain, the evidence of state sponsored murder of a British citizen is now revealed and is both clear and overwhelming.  Russia is seeking by overt aggression and covert subversion to attack the West. The astonishing lies put out by the Russian propaganda machine are feeding a frenzy of anti-Western hatred . Some countries- including Greece- have been severely compromised by a large scale and long term Russian espionage penetration . R...

A piece in today's FT by Ivan Krastev , suggests that far from backing down, the Putinist government in Moscow may be considering stirring up trouble for the West on a new front: the Balkans. Given the nihilist Russian position on Syria , which has essentially destroyed that country, it is quite possible that Putin could meddle in the region, with some attempt to reward Serbia's more friendly position to Russia by dismembering Bosnia. Yet the economic crisis of Russia is causing a rapid erosion of Russian soft power, and the collusion of corruption, which Krastev identifies as the primary source of Russian leverage is dwarfed by the attractions of European integration. Although Russia is now seeking public spending cuts - with the glaring exception of defence spending, the economic situation in Moscow is looking increasingly bleak. That Putin has a weak grasp of economics has been obvious for some time, and thus he fails to understand the serious and permanent damage his polici...

Well, it only took a few hours from my last comment about the blood in the Russian interbank market, before the first of the Russian banks needed rescuing. An estimated $531 million to rescue National Bank Trust  is just the first order of business for the CBR. Clearly there is a huge level of work to do before the Russian financial sector can even begin to recover, even if-for the time being- the oil price seems to have stabilised at around $60/bbl. After the crash, investors are beginning to put prices on Russian risk- and these are hugely discounted. For some Russian assets, there is simply no bid at all, so although a floor might be visible in some areas, it is still the case that international appetite for Russia is exceptionally low. This is not just because of sanctions, it is also because there is the growing realisation that the economic impact of Putin's aggressive incompetence will be long lasting, and in some sectors the damage is permanent. Both policy makers and i...

In the early days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in March, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel made a widely reported comment that Vladimir Putin was "living in another world" .  The point being that the statements that were being made by the Kremlin were so completely untrue that they had literally no basis in reality.  Over the past few months we have started to become used to Russian propaganda: astroturfing, Putintrolls, and all the rest of it, but nevertheless, no matter how vehemently propagated, the Kremlin position remains completely at odds with objective, evidence based truth. The well funded Russian propaganda machine is slick, well presented and almost entirely half truths and whole lies. According to Peter Pomerantsev, in his book "Nothing is true and everything is permitted: the surreal heart of the new Russia" , the kleptocratic cabal that now controls the Kremlin does not believe in truth even as a concept. Instead they believe that anyt...

Amid the occasionally rambling and bizarre comments from Vladimir Putin's annual press conference yesterday, a couple of critical points are rather obvious.  Firstly, Putin accepts no responsibility for the crisis that has hit Russia, continuing to believe his own paranoid fantasy of Western economic destabilization .   Secondly, he intends to double down and continue his aggressive and disastrous policies . However, despite the current dead cat bounce in the Rouble, there are two things that could rapidly make the economic situation for Russia irretrievable. The first is in the small print of the Rosneft placement that triggered the deep crash in the currency . Essentially the Bank of Russia underwrote the placement of RUR 625 billion at 150 b.p. below Russian sovereign risk price- and since Rosneft had $7 billion to pay on 21st December, the whole placement went into the forex market. The implication is clear: The Russian central bank, in addition to being the lender o...