Cicero's Songs

What are we waiting for, assembled in the forum? The barbarians are due here today. Why isn’t anything going on in the senate? Why are the senators sitting there without legislating? Because the barbarians are coming today. What’s the point of senators making laws now? Once the barbarians are here, they’ll do the legislating. Why did our emperor get up so early, and why is he sitting enthroned at the city’s main gate, in state, wearing the crown? Because the barbarians are coming today and the emperor’s waiting to receive their leader. He’s even got a scroll to give him, loaded with titles, with imposing names. Why have our two consuls and praetors come out today wearing their embroidered, their scarlet togas? Why have they put on bracelets with so many amethysts, rings sparkling with magnificent emeralds? Why are they carrying elegant canes beautifully worked in silver and gold? Because the barbarians are coming today and things like that dazzle the barbarians. Why don’t our distingui...

In December 1941, Imperial Japan launched a surprise attack on the United States at Pearl Harbor. After the subsequent declaration of war, within three days, the Japanese had sunk the British warships, HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse, and the rapid Japanese attack led to the surrender of Hong Kong on Christmas Day 1941 and the fall of Singapore only two months after Pearl Harbor. These were the opening blows in the long war of the Pacific that cost over 30,000,000 lives and was only ended with the detonations above Hiroshima and Nagasaki. "History doesn't often repeat itself, but it rhymes" is an aphorism attributed to Mark Twain, and in a way it seems quite appropriate when we survey the current scene.  In 1941, Imperial Japan, knowing its own weakness, chose a non-conventional form of war, the surprise attack. Since the end of his first Presidential term, Vladimir Putin, knowing Russia's weakness, has also chosen non-conventional ways to promote his domestic...

Sir Robert Owen, as expected, has today filed his report into the murder of Alexander Litvinenko. The conclusions are stark: 1. I am sure that Mr Litvinenko did not ingest the polonium 210 either by accident or to commit suicide. I am sure, rather, that he was deliberately poisoned by others. 2.   I am sure that Mr Lugovoy and Mr Kovtun placed the polonium 210 in the teapot at the Pine Bar on 1 November 2006. I am also sure they did this with the intention of poisoning Mr Litvinenko. 3.   I am sure that the two men had made an earlier attempt to poison Mr Litvinenko, also using polonium 210, at the Erinys meeting on 16 October 2006. 4.   I am sure that Mr Lugovoy and Mr Kovtun knew that they were using a deadly poison (as opposed, for example, to a truth drug or a sleeping draught), and that they intended to kill Mr Litvinenko. I do not believe, however, that they knew precisely what the chemical that they were handling was, or the nature of all its prop...

One way analysts have chosen to examine the dysfunctional political system of Russia is as a "power vertical" where closely linked economic and political interests share out the spoils of the economy. Like all models it is a simplification, but it has sometimes explained events that make no other sense. As the Russian forces in Ukraine have increased their hostile activity- the latest being a renewed offensive against Mariupol- there is now increasing evidence that the power vertical is less united than it has been for sometime. As I noted a few days ago, the campaigning season in Ukraine is getting short, and with only a few weeks left there is great pressure on the Kremlin to break the deadlock before further help can get to the Ukrainian armed forces and the balance of power turns more strongly against the invaders. What is true for the military may also be true for Russia's internal politics. The announcement that Yakunin may be running for the Federation Council s...

On a day when Vladimir Putin threatens nuclear war to try to break up NATO , the painful and unnecessary deaths of at least 54 Russian sailors just emphasizes how cheap human life is in a country where people are simply giving up hope. It is a contemptible display from a government that is rapidly losing its grip on reality. Meanwhile a small glimpse of the nature of Russian propaganda has been given by former workers in Russia's "Troll's House" . The struggles within the regime are now increasingly open: the Russian chauvinism of some significant elements in the FSB versus the corruption of the Chechens. Ostensibly this is a struggle that pits ethnic Russians versus non-ethnic Russians, but in reality it is a straight forward battle for power. Putin may have found a modus vivendi for the time being, but the army is increasingly unhappy about the Ukrainian adventure- which according to some sources has now cost nearly 6000 Russian soldiers their lives, with si...

Since Vladimir Putin "resurfaced" on Monday, the most feverish speculation has died down. He has not been actually overthrown. However there is little doubt that his regime is facing serious problems. In a sense we can know this by the renewed blizzard of propaganda and misinformation being put out by the Kremlin lie machine : reporting and exaggerating splits between EU and NATO partners about the current Russian sanctions regime, for example. Then there is the report that Putin was prepared to use nuclear weapons over Crimea . Meanwhile the entire Russian northern fleet has gone on alert. The message is clear "I am dangerous, don't mess with me". Yet as some sources report that the Russian death toll in Ukraine now significantly exceeds the initial estimates, the fact that it is the Northern fleet is significant- threatening to the NATO exercise in the Baltic, but not a further threat to Ukraine. More to the point it is a distraction for a force which...

The murder of Boris Nemtsov is beginning to look like a catalyst for some significant upheaval in Russia.  The arrest of Chechen suspects initially looked like a lazy round up of the "usual suspects".  However it quickly became clear that the individuals detained by the FSB were not just ordinary Chechens but significant figures, very close to the Chechen strongman, Ramzan Kadyrov, who has enjoyed special privileges both in his home patch, but also across Russia, including Moscow. Privileges which were, of course, granted by Putin. The fact that the head of the FSB personally announced the arrests -a very unusual thing for him to do- suggests a major split between two of the critical pillars of Putinism: The FSB and Kadyrov's Chechens. This is now a major headache for Putin. At other crisis points -the Kursk disaster springs to mind- he has dropped out of sight and then returned, usually with increasing levels of ruthlessness, and, amid swirling rumours, that se...

When I first met Boris Nemtsov -he was then in his mid thirties- in addition to his obvious intelligence, he also possessed a glamour, which was not just a function of good looks, but also the determined way he had become anti-Soviet. He had begun by leading protests in his home town of Sochi and had steadily progressed so that by the last years of Boris Yeltsin, he had become mayor of Nizhni Novgorod and was in the process of being brought into the Kremlin. As such he might have become part of the corrupt cabal that ultimately- and disastrously- led to the emergence of the Putin regime. Instead, he chose a path that was both more principled and as his tragic assassination today has proven, more dangerous. Nemtsov spoke for the Western Russia, as opposed to the Scythian one of Stalin and Putin. He believed in rule of law and rule of the people and he held in contempt those who have subverted and stolen Russia for their own personal greed. Nemtsov was not merely a political critic of ...

After the Hollande-Merkel "peace" mission and Michael Fallon's "infelicitous" choice of words  about the Russian threat to the Baltic, it seemed that British detachment from both its allies, including the US, and the burgeoning Putin crisis was growing. In fact, the lack of involvement by the UK in the Minsk-2 debacle now looks prescient. Meanwhile the British decision to provide direct military assistance to the Ukrainian government is controversial, but the in face of the dumb insolence of the Putin government it is a pretty small step, albeit one with potentially momentous consequences for the endgame of the crisis. Meanwhile, notwithstanding the pressure of the Putinist lie machine and the further persecution of Navalny , it is becoming clear that the s ituation in Russia is deteriorating fast. Russia has chosen a direct challenge to the West, nuclear threats and all. However, the reaction from Washington and it now seems in London, is increasingly to ca...

In his recently published book, Bill Browder gives estimates of how much Vladimir Putin has stolen from his Russian fellow countrymen . The number he gives is a truly staggering $200 billion.  If this is even remotely true, it makes Putin one of the greatest thieves in human history.  We already know that Putin is presiding over a propaganda machine that rivals and even exceeds the worst that Josef Goebbels presided over. The use of propaganda is sophisticated and relativistic- Peter Pomerantsev in his book "Nothing is True and Everything is Possible" outlines just how pervasive and evil the Putinist lie machine has become. In the UK, the inquiry into the circumstances of the poisoning of Aleksander Litvinenko  has revealed that the British government has clear and direct evidence that Russian government agents acting under the orders of "the highest authority" carried out the murder of Litvinenko, even though he was a British citizen, and the murder was c...

In the 1930s there were many heated debates about issues which in retrospect seem rather beside the point. The role of the League of Nations was hotly debated, but in the face of the unrelenting aggression of the dictators, the whole idea of peace-based policies fell apart in the face of Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin. There were many rational arguments as to why a second Great War was unthinkable: war itself had become the ultimate evil. Surely, no matter what the grievance, a rational and peaceful solution could be found? In the end such enlightened humanity lead to the disaster of Munich and the general slide to a second global conflict. Many reasons might be found after the event- the policy mistakes after 1918, reparations and so on, but actually the malign and festering sense of grievance that Hitler fostered in the German people was not a rational policy and led directly to the war. In the end, the tyrant launched a second two front war which led not merely to a second defeat for ...

Russia is refusing to back down in Ukraine. All out military force is being used in order to support the declared Russian military objective that Ukraine be defeated and divided. Civilians are being deliberately targeted and the attacks on a major power station and other industrial operations is a clear attempt to destroy the Ukrainian economy. Put simply, the Russian Federation is engaged in a huge act of aggression against a peaceful neighbour. Despite sanctions, and despite increasing economic weakness Vladimir Putin stands defiant. In Britain, the evidence of state sponsored murder of a British citizen is now revealed and is both clear and overwhelming.  Russia is seeking by overt aggression and covert subversion to attack the West. The astonishing lies put out by the Russian propaganda machine are feeding a frenzy of anti-Western hatred . Some countries- including Greece- have been severely compromised by a large scale and long term Russian espionage penetration . R...

A piece in today's FT by Ivan Krastev , suggests that far from backing down, the Putinist government in Moscow may be considering stirring up trouble for the West on a new front: the Balkans. Given the nihilist Russian position on Syria , which has essentially destroyed that country, it is quite possible that Putin could meddle in the region, with some attempt to reward Serbia's more friendly position to Russia by dismembering Bosnia. Yet the economic crisis of Russia is causing a rapid erosion of Russian soft power, and the collusion of corruption, which Krastev identifies as the primary source of Russian leverage is dwarfed by the attractions of European integration. Although Russia is now seeking public spending cuts - with the glaring exception of defence spending, the economic situation in Moscow is looking increasingly bleak. That Putin has a weak grasp of economics has been obvious for some time, and thus he fails to understand the serious and permanent damage his polici...

"What is the name of this place, I asked him. Valerik, he answered me. And translated into your language, That would be... River of Death." Lermontov In a short while Vladimir Putin will make his state of the nation speech in the St. George's Hall of the Kremlin. Perhaps in the chandeliered magnificence of this room, the Russian President may feel safe. He may make a rousing and grandiloquent speech making the case for Russian greatness. Perhaps he might offer an olive branch to the West that he has spent the past year excoriating, more likely he will add to the litany of grievance and envy he clearly feels. Perhaps in the end it might not matter. A few hours ago Chechen militants launched an attack against local police in Grozny. This is the second attack in a couple of months, but it comes at a very significant time for the situation in Chechnya. Several of the most prominent figures in the ISIS rebellion in Iraq/Syria are of Chechen origin . There are ...

On September 19th 2014- a scant two months ago- we learned that Scottish voters had voted to reject the idea of Scotland as "an independent country" by a margin of well over 10%. Apart from Vladimir Putin who, to be fair knows a thing or two about ballot rigging, the vote was universally recognized as a free and fair expression of the will of the Scottish people. The result came after an extremely heated and divisive debate, with accusations of bias and corruption on both sides. To my mind the No vote came from the result of many factors, but the most important was that the economic argument made by the separatists was so weak. There might be a case for establishing Scotland, like Estonia, as an ultra-nimble free market economy; however the argument made was the exact opposite: that Scotland could only preserve its bloated and inefficient state sector through separation. This argument was self-evidently untrue, and as it became clear that separation would indeed requi...

Europe is on the eve of war. Since Vladimir Putin came to power Russia has fallen sixty one places in the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index . It is currently 127 on the list, more corrupt than Gabon, Pakistan or Mali. The contempt for the rule of law extends across all aspects of Russian society. Property is routinely stolen, human rights are routinely abused .  Russia is the most unequal society in the world and there is no justice in one of the least free countries on the planet .  This lamentable record has been accompanied by the rise of one of the most outrageous propaganda machines ever seen in world history . Even the Soviet Union at its worst did not resort to outright lies. Now, Russia expects to be believed, even when all evidence proves that its leaders are speaking the direct opposite of the truth. Those journalists inside Russia who have had the courage to speak the truth have been silenced, often by murder . Russia has for some time ...

In the few days, the discussion of Russia has acquired a new dimension. The announced withdrawal of Russian forces placed close to the Ukrainian border and a slight but significant easing on the previously blood-curdling rhetoric coming from Moscow has made some people think that the crisis, fomented and largely organised by the Kremlin, may now be beginning to ease. Certainly the imposition of sanctions although it has had relatively little direct effect, has indirectly caused the government of Vladimir Putin some real problems. Western companies involved in the Russian market have radically reconsidered the risks of doing business in Russia and almost all have curtailed their investment plans. Some such as Blackstone and Adobe have announced plans to leave the Russian market altogether. The market capitalisation of the Moscow stock exchange has plunged. Inflation, at 8%, is already climbing further. Russia has faced investment shortfalls for some time, but is now facing huge cap...