Cicero's Songs

The Russian "August War" is still rumbling on, despite the fading of Western media interest. Russian troops continue to hold their positions well inside Georgia proper, and continue to harass Western deliveries of aid to shattered Georgia. However already, the Kremlin is starting to have to pay the price for their aggression . The FT reports this morning that the Central Bank of Russia has been forced to intervene to support the Rouble. The Bank confirms this, suggesting outflows of around $ 5 billion, however more independent voices suggest that he outflows over the month were more in the region of $15-$20 billion. It is, of course, not just the impact of the war- significant though that has been. The threats by Mr. Putin against Mechel , the announcement that grain trading was to be considered a "strategic" sector, the continued attacks against BP - TNK all have unsettled the markets substantially. Now, the perception has hardened that the risk profile of R...

Since the Russians launched their well-planned war against Georgia on August 8th, there have been several opportunities for Russia to reduce the increasing tension with NATO. However, at every stage, the Russian Federation has played hardball. Firstly they have failed to implement the August 15th ceasefire agreement which they themselves signed- keeping their troops well inside Georgia proper. The Russian army has looted the port of Poti and stolen not only Georgian property, but also the property of several other nations too. The have repeatedly attacked rail and road links and have successfully disrupted oil transit from Azerbaijan to the West. As humanitarian aide comes into the only functioning port under Georgian control- Batumi- Russian naval vessels have harassed the incoming shipments and the NATO warships that have entered the Black Sea. Any criticism has been greeted with extremely aggressive- in fact bellicose- language. By recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Russian...

Today is the 17th anniversary of the August coup in Moscow. The hardliners of the Politburo conspired with the Soviet military and security services to overthrow the reforming Communist, Mikhail Gorbachev. However, as we know, the coup failed and the Soviet Union disintegrated. In the past week, we have had to confront the fact that the defeat of the hardliners was by no means as complete as it seemed at the time. The secret organs of the Soviet state have turned out to be far more robust than we had hoped. Indeed, almost any figure of consequence in the modern Russian Federation- seemingly with the sole exception of President Dimitri Medvedev himself- is a former member of the Soviet security services. The education of the so-called "Siloviki"- the "security people", has been rather unusual. The core values of the KGB and the GRU were based upon a ruthlessly Manichean view of the world- Leninist conspiracy would undermine the capitalist "Imperialists". A...

Under the Tsars, Russian government was "autocracy, mitigated by assassination". Even after the State Duma was established in 1906, there was little restraint upon executive power. After the Bolshevik revolution, the dictatorship of the Communist Party was even less a government of laws. Untrammelled executive power under the psychotic Josef Stalin led to the Terror of the Purges and the creation of the camps described so powerfully by Aleksander Solzhenitsyn. Unlike the efficient German Nazis, few records were kept of the numbers involved, but millions were killed and tens of millions imprisoned under exceptionally harsh conditions. The 1980s saw an attempt to escape that grim legacy, however the process of liberalisation led to the inevitable demise of a society and a state built on terror. This liberalisation and the fall of the Soviet Union is what Vladimir Putin has already characterised as the greatest "geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century". Moreo...

In the last few days, Russian military vessels have attacked and sunk Georgian naval vessels. However those Russian ships are based in Sevastapol - under the remit of an agreement with the host nation: Ukraine. Ukraine does not support the use of its ports in a vicious war against a friendly country. It has indicated that it will not permit those ships that participated in the action to return to Ukrainian ports. If Russia intends to break the blockade, then it will essentially be attacking Ukraine in the same way as it has already attacked Georgia. This is playing with fire. The rape of Georgia has already humiliated the West and killed tens of thousands. Unless the Kremlin pulls back from the brink, we could indeed be looking a a major war.

All of the Western powers accept that the invasion of Georgia will fundamentally change the way that NATO and the European Union deal with the Kremlin. However there is a deep disagreement about how far the West is able to go in punishing the Russian Federation for the illegal invasion of its sovereign, democratic neighbour. Some would argue that Russia has grown so strong that it is inevitable that the West will be forced to cave in. Fortunately a group of states- roughly speaking in the North and West of the NATO alliance and led by the United States- has made it quite clear that they intend to go beyond a token slap on the wrist. Planned joint exercises have been cancelled, and Russia's exclusion from the G-8 appears all but inevitable. As the fighting continues, those who have advocated a softly-softly approach to Russia- such as Germany- are reluctantly facing the need for a tough response. Of course these last few days most of us have been outraged at Russia's actions. No...

I have spent an emotional day with Georgians. "My best friend- I have known him since he was six- is in the artillery in Gori . I do not know if he is dead or alive". "The lines are down, I don't know where my family is" Make no mistake -this was a war of Russia's choosing. As the government of Georgia make a stand in the compound in Tbilisi, Russian troops have roamed at will across the country. The defeat is complete, but Russia continues to pretend that Georgia fights on. The latest nonsense is "Georgian agents are creating terrorist incidents in Russia". Only someone educated with the tin ear of the Stalinist could think that anyone beyond themselves could believe such a complete lie. In my opinion, Russia can no longer be treated as anything but what she has become: a treacherous aggressor, contemptuous of human life. People in the West are wringing their hands and saying "but what can we do- surely nothing?" Do Russian spies not fun...

Both AP and the BBC have confirmed that Gori and Senaki- entirely Georgian cities, a long way from either South Ossetia or Abhazia have been occupied by Russian troops. The overthrow of Georgia's democratic regime appears to be under way. The shock across the world is palpable. The actions of the Putin regime are simply outrageous. No state that defies Russia, even within its own borders, can now be considered beyond Russian interference, up to and including acts of war against civilians. The Bear believes itself invulnerable and will maintain violent pressure, legal, or illegal in any way it sees fit. This is an unquestioned return to the evil ways of Stalinism, and can only be resisted by any freedom loving people. In my view Russia has already put itself outside the civilised world. Unless and until the Russian Federation withdraws its troops to the status quo ante and agrees to enter substantive talks. then NATO should make quite clear that it will not recognise any puppet reg...

Since Russia has launched cyberattacks against Georgia in parallel with their continuing military assault, I feel obliged to highlight sites that the Georgians have been able to use to get information about what is happening in the Russian invasion. The Foreign Affairs Ministry site: http://georgiamfa.blogspot.com/ Also the President of Poland has established a site on his own Home page in order to get further information out: http://www.president.pl/x.node?id=479 Most .GG websites are at best only intermittently accessable as a result of the Russian cyberattacks. Russian government actions over the past 96 hours- picking a fight with their small neighbour and then responding is overwhelming and totally disproportionate force have been a massive wake-up call and warning for all of us. I, and others like Edward Lucas, have warned for some time about the nature of the Putin regime- their can be no doubt about their intentions, determination and recklessness with human life. The West face...

I can not deny that I am much troubled by the appalling news from Georgia. The obvious determination of Russia to destroy the hard-won independence of the country is the writing on the wall for the future. Russia has gone well beyond hard-ball. The bombing of Tblisi , and the news that the Georgians are evacuating Gori - a city well inside Georgia proper suggests, pehaps, that Russia intends to occupy much of the entire country. The message that the Kremlin is giving is that any state that presumes to challenge Russian power can expect the use of every weapon in the Russian armoury against them. It means to that the probing and challenging at every turn that NATO has had to deal with over the past few years will now be stepped up. Russian money too can be used as a weapon- and it will be. My friend Edward Lucas has written well on the subject of the New Russian Hegemony, but even he is shocked, as am I, by the naked brutality that the Siloviki have displayed. Troubled at heart I deci...

Despite the withdrawal of Georgian troops from South Ossetia, the Russians are continuing their attack. It is now quite clear that Russia intends nothing less than the seizure of both South Ossetia and Abhazia, the total military defeat of Georgia and the overthrow of the democratically elected Georgian President, Mikheil Saakhashvili. The folly of the Bucharest summit, which failed to invite either Georgia or Ukraine into NATO is now revealed. The objections of France might have been expected, those of Germany are simply reprehensible. The fact that Georgia, like Germany in 1949, faced partial occupation by Russian military forces and a Russian sponsored puppet government in its occupied territory was the reason to bring Georgia into the alliance and not to exclude it. Had the allied powers said to Germany then, "We would like to have you in NATO, eventually, but first please sort out your "internal affairs" with "East" Germany, then the Western powers may wel...

There are now reports that in addition to attacks on the Georgian cities of Poti and Gori, and the continuing fighting in South Ossetia, Russian troops are "invading" the other separatist province, Abhazia. If this is confirmed, then it is quite clear that we are not looking at a response to any Georgian moves in South Ossetia, but a much bigger operation: an attack on the territorial integrity of Georgia that must have been plned for some time. Russia appears to be attacking its smaller neighbour on all fronts: In the separatist provinces, in Georgia proper and also it has launched large sale DoS attack against Georgian Internet addresses and websites (familiar as a tactic against the Estonians last year). This is now an act of war, not only against Georgia- which has responded by declaring a state of war, and thus internationalising the conflict by bringing it under the purview of the United Nations- but also the West. This is the "Rhineland" moment. Should what n...

As far as wars are concerned, it usually pays to be pretty sceptical, as American Senator Hiram Johnson said in 1917 : "The first casualty when war comes is truth". However, with regard to the Russian-Georgian conflict that has turned hot over the past few days, the truth is actually quite clear. Russian troops are fighting inside territory that Russia, along with the international community, recognises as Georgia. The attack by Russian planes, now confirmed, against the Georgian city of Poti, is an attack by the Russian Air Force against Georgia directly. Russia has attacked Georgia- not the other way round. This is simply the latest act from the Kremlin that defies international law. I have noted in the past the massive strategic significance of Georgia to the energy pipelines from Central Asia to the West, and while the West may be unclear about how important such a small country is, Russia has never forgotten and finds the Euro-Atlantic stance of the Tbilisi government in...

Despite the continuing pressure from Russia, Georgia has been able to hold presidential elections that have been generally recognised as free and fair. The incumbent, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been able to hold on to office, with about 52% of the vote. It is a slap in the face to Russia, which is the only country that has refused to recognise the elections as free and fair. Despite the intimidation, subversion and occasional violence, Russia has not been able to achieve its goal of undermining the independent minded Mr. Saakashvili and replacing him with someone more compliant to Russian wishes. When the Russian fomented protests forced the election, there were concerns expressed that Mr. Saakashvili would attempt to create an authoritarian regime, similar to those in neighbouring Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the continued engagement with liberalism, openness and democracy by the government has allowed a democratic solution to emerge. Despite desultory protests, the fact is that the...

The last few days have been difficult, even in the context of the tumultuous recent history of Georgia. Riots, and government demonstrations in Tbilisi, the declaration of a state of emergency. A familiar tale of instability in the Caucasus, would be most observers diagnosis. Except it is not. Georgia is a country of absolutely critical geo-strategic significance. Put simply the Baku-Tbilisi corridor is the only way that oil can get to the global markets from the vast fields of Kazakhstan and the Caspian without passing through Russia. For the West Georgia is a vital part of global energy security: for Russia Georgia poses a defiant challenge to Russian hegemony over the central Asian energy reserves. Constantly Russia has harried and harassed the Western oriented government of Mikheil Saakashvili - it illegally expelled thousands of Georgian traders and business people in 2006- a policy condemned by Human Rights Watch . In August of this year the repeated illegal over flights of Ge...