After the huge demonstrations in Moscow over the weekend against the rule of Vladimir Putin, it is clear that the regime is plotting a come back. Although the bused-in supporters of the regime were heavily outnumbered by the spontaneous opposition, it is clear that the supporters of the regime are trying to respond to the growing contempt for the current government with manufactured anger against "outsiders"- chiefly Americans- who they profess to believe are seeking to undermine the return of Vladimir Putin.
Given the assistance that Moscow is offering to the brutal and discredited regime in Damascus, one could hardly blame the Americans if they did not feel well disposed towards the nihilist regime in the Kremlin, however, if anything the US appears to be desperately downplaying the challenge to the Putinista regime. Despite the veto that Russia placed on action by the United Nations, the Americans have expressed little stronger than disappointment.
Yet increasingly the government in Moscow seems to live in a twisted world of its own devising. The explosion of anger at the blatant ballot rigging in the Russian Parliamentary elections is still dismissed as the minority actions of those misguided by foreign propaganda. Putin continues to offer minimal concessions- the possibility of the return of elected governors for example- while failing to understand that the demand for greater political freedom in Russia is not simply a function of the political calculations of his -growing list- of enemies. In a series of columns in Kommersant, the Russian Prime Minister puts forward the view that Russia needs greater democracy, but that "true democracy" is essentially whatever he and his henchmen in United Russia say it is. His newly minted concern for democracy is rather undermined by his actions in undermining Russian freedom by almost every measure ever since he came to power over a decade ago.
Meanwhile the regime has opened a new front with the bizarre persecution of the dead, by reopening charges against Sergei Magnitsky - the lawyer who died in government custody. This Kafkaesque spectacle is yet another sign that the government is in complete denial about its own criminal failings.
The folly of the regime in their complete misjudgement of the national mood is ever more apparent. Although the Kremlin is set to prevent any serious rival to Putin appearing on the ballot paper next month, there is little doubt that this regime is now well past its best days. All the oil-fired prosperity is not pacifying the Russian people, indeed if anything the emergence of a new middle class is seeing yet greater demands for an end to the restrictions on political and economic freedom that have been the hallmark of the Siloviki regime.
Vladimir Putin remains too much a child of the KGB to understand- still less respond to- the growing sense of anger directed at his regime's pitiful attempts to present lies as truth. Although there is every chance that he will be returned as President, the rhetoric from the Kremlin suggests that he simply lacks the vision to be able to pilot his government through the rocky years ahead. His return to the Presidency is likely to be the beginning of even greater instability in Russia.
Wednesday, February 08, 2012
Monday, February 06, 2012
A Salmond Summer of Sport
Alex Salmond is not a man to stand on dignity. Despite rumours that he would restore the title of "High Excellency" to the sovereign's first minister in Scotland, it would be unfair to accuse our corpulent chief of taking himself too seriously.
So surely there must be more to the story that he accused a BBC producer of being a "gauleiter" when he refused to allow our dear leader to participate in a debate between Rugby pundits.
Personally I wasn't aware that the first minister had so much interest in the game that he could comment on the technical bravura of the Scottish loose forwards or the (alas too strong) skills of the English back line. However since we all know that Mr. Salmond has a great enthusiasm for the turf, perhaps his skill in picking horseflesh could be extended to the flowing game of Rugby (though, alas, last Saturday's game did not provide a good example).
Well, just shows how wrong can you be. I mean who knew that a First minister tipping the scales at 150 KG was actually so committed to non-equine sport? It would not have looked in any way absurd to have our Burly Brutus sitting next to the comparatively sylph-like Jeremy Guscott or Andy Nicol. Quite obviously the BBC producer must have been some kind of Nazi not to recognize that a jowly politician must be equal in rugby standing to those many capped internationalists who usually bore us with their ignorance.
So more please Alex! We are looking forward to your discussions on the off-side rule over the Euro 2012 football tournament, in which, alas Scotland will not be playing; or some exposition of javelin throwing at the Olympics. I am also quite sure that we will see you with Sue Barker discussing the niceties of Andy Murray's passing shots come Wimbledon.
An exciting summer of sport awaits with our -oh so sporty- First Minister.
On the other hand he might just be an arrogant jerk with an ego complex the size of Texas, who accused the BBC of Nazi tactics because he had lost the argument and was making a fool of himself.
Tricky one that.
So surely there must be more to the story that he accused a BBC producer of being a "gauleiter" when he refused to allow our dear leader to participate in a debate between Rugby pundits.
Personally I wasn't aware that the first minister had so much interest in the game that he could comment on the technical bravura of the Scottish loose forwards or the (alas too strong) skills of the English back line. However since we all know that Mr. Salmond has a great enthusiasm for the turf, perhaps his skill in picking horseflesh could be extended to the flowing game of Rugby (though, alas, last Saturday's game did not provide a good example).
Well, just shows how wrong can you be. I mean who knew that a First minister tipping the scales at 150 KG was actually so committed to non-equine sport? It would not have looked in any way absurd to have our Burly Brutus sitting next to the comparatively sylph-like Jeremy Guscott or Andy Nicol. Quite obviously the BBC producer must have been some kind of Nazi not to recognize that a jowly politician must be equal in rugby standing to those many capped internationalists who usually bore us with their ignorance.
So more please Alex! We are looking forward to your discussions on the off-side rule over the Euro 2012 football tournament, in which, alas Scotland will not be playing; or some exposition of javelin throwing at the Olympics. I am also quite sure that we will see you with Sue Barker discussing the niceties of Andy Murray's passing shots come Wimbledon.
An exciting summer of sport awaits with our -oh so sporty- First Minister.
On the other hand he might just be an arrogant jerk with an ego complex the size of Texas, who accused the BBC of Nazi tactics because he had lost the argument and was making a fool of himself.
Tricky one that.
Thursday, February 02, 2012
Wislawa Szymborska 1923-2012 RIP
On Death, Without Exaggeration
It can't take a joke,
find a star, make a bridge.
It knows nothing about weaving, mining, farming,
building ships, or baking cakes.
find a star, make a bridge.
It knows nothing about weaving, mining, farming,
building ships, or baking cakes.
In our planning for tomorrow,
it has the final word,
which is always beside the point.
it has the final word,
which is always beside the point.
It can't even get the things done
that are part of its trade:
dig a grave,
make a coffin,
clean up after itself.
that are part of its trade:
dig a grave,
make a coffin,
clean up after itself.
Preoccupied with killing,
it does the job awkwardly,
without system or skill.
As though each of us were its first kill.
it does the job awkwardly,
without system or skill.
As though each of us were its first kill.
Oh, it has its triumphs,
but look at its countless defeats,
missed blows,
and repeat attempts!
but look at its countless defeats,
missed blows,
and repeat attempts!
Sometimes it isn't strong enough
to swat a fly from the air.
Many are the caterpillars
that have outcrawled it.
to swat a fly from the air.
Many are the caterpillars
that have outcrawled it.
All those bulbs, pods,
tentacles, fins, tracheae,
nuptial plumage, and winter fur
show that it has fallen behind
with its halfhearted work.
tentacles, fins, tracheae,
nuptial plumage, and winter fur
show that it has fallen behind
with its halfhearted work.
Ill will won't help
and even our lending a hand with wars and coups d'etat
is so far not enough.
and even our lending a hand with wars and coups d'etat
is so far not enough.
Hearts beat inside eggs.
Babies' skeletons grow.
Seeds, hard at work, sprout their first tiny pair of leaves
and sometimes even tall trees fall away.
Babies' skeletons grow.
Seeds, hard at work, sprout their first tiny pair of leaves
and sometimes even tall trees fall away.
Whoever claims that it's omnipotent
is himself living proof
that it's not.
is himself living proof
that it's not.
There's no life
that couldn't be immortal
if only for a moment.
that couldn't be immortal
if only for a moment.
Death
always arrives by that very moment too late.
always arrives by that very moment too late.
In vain it tugs at the knob
of the invisible door.
As far as you've come
can't be undone
of the invisible door.
As far as you've come
can't be undone
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Dis-Honours
Stripping Fred Goodwin of his knighthood may be popular- it is also deeply wrong.
At a time when convicted criminals, such as Jeffery Archer, can still be called Lord Archer and still have access to the privileges of the peerage, to strip a man convicted of no crime, because what he may (or may not) have done is unpopular looks like the worse kind of witch hunt- it is giving in to the baying of the mob.
Many tabloid newspaper editors and journalists have been knighted or have received other honours- how come there has been no such outcry against them? Tabloids were not guilty of misjudgement, but as we now know, of crimes- presumably once the Leveson inquiry is over we will strip all the journalists of their awards- as Johan Hari has been stripped of the Orwell prize (and now, belatedly his job).
I think John Prescott is a lecherous incompetent- I think we should strip him of his peerage- indeed he should never have received it. In fact I think anyone on the Labour benches should be stripped of any honours they may have. Actually I don't like Tories much either- how come Patrick Cormack- as pompous to his own side as to everyone else- gets to keep his knighthood?
Unless Fred Goodwin was convicted of a crime, how can he be dis-honoured like this?
The honours system has been a farce for years- now it descends into something much worse.
At a time when convicted criminals, such as Jeffery Archer, can still be called Lord Archer and still have access to the privileges of the peerage, to strip a man convicted of no crime, because what he may (or may not) have done is unpopular looks like the worse kind of witch hunt- it is giving in to the baying of the mob.
Many tabloid newspaper editors and journalists have been knighted or have received other honours- how come there has been no such outcry against them? Tabloids were not guilty of misjudgement, but as we now know, of crimes- presumably once the Leveson inquiry is over we will strip all the journalists of their awards- as Johan Hari has been stripped of the Orwell prize (and now, belatedly his job).
I think John Prescott is a lecherous incompetent- I think we should strip him of his peerage- indeed he should never have received it. In fact I think anyone on the Labour benches should be stripped of any honours they may have. Actually I don't like Tories much either- how come Patrick Cormack- as pompous to his own side as to everyone else- gets to keep his knighthood?
Unless Fred Goodwin was convicted of a crime, how can he be dis-honoured like this?
The honours system has been a farce for years- now it descends into something much worse.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Another critical week
As Monday looms ahead, there is now the real probability that Greece could default this week.
No one knows what happens in that event: the policy makers and many market practitioners now think they can cope- but the reality is that no one knows.
I think we are about to find out whether Mrs. Merkel's policy of masterly inactivity will actually work.
I don't think it has, and I suspect that the impending Greek default could well lead to the failure of Hungary and Bulgaria.
This feels like the calm before the storm.
No one knows what happens in that event: the policy makers and many market practitioners now think they can cope- but the reality is that no one knows.
I think we are about to find out whether Mrs. Merkel's policy of masterly inactivity will actually work.
I don't think it has, and I suspect that the impending Greek default could well lead to the failure of Hungary and Bulgaria.
This feels like the calm before the storm.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Could France vote for Marine Le Pen?
France remains one of the cornerstones of the European Union. A founding member of the organisation, it has been French philosophy that has shaped the ideology of the bloc and French systems and vocabulary of administration- "conseil", "stage"- that dictate the implementation of policy. The EU, primarily conceived as a way of eroding the hostility of enemies, in practice has become a way for France to project its power and influence over the whole bloc.
The latest alliance- of President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel at first sight looks like only the latest in a long series of Paris-Berlin (or Bonn) arrangements that have come to constitute the "Franco-German motor" of the EU.
Yet the signs are there, for all who can read them, that all is not well.
The attempts to rationalise and reform the European Union that have been underway for over a decade culminated in the EU Constitution: a document primarily crafted be a former French President- Valery Giscard d'Estaing- and full of the phraseology that L'Academie Francaise could approve- or even understand. Yet as we know, the French rejected the document in a decisive referendum. Although another founding member- the Netherlands- also rejected the document a few days later, it was the French rejection that was fatal to the project.
Yet France has long possessed significant anti-federalist, even Euro sceptic, political forces. These have tended to group into the anti-capitalist parties of the extreme left and the ultra-Gaullist believers in the French nation state who shade into the Pujardist and ultra nationalist Front National. As the left continues its slow decay, it has become the Front National that has been the primary standard bearer of Euro Scepticism, based upon a certain idea of French identity and nationalism.
Yet the leadership of the Front National, under the ex-soldier, Jean Marie Le Pen has not made the political breakthrough that they hoped. In 2002, despite the strong hostility of the media, Le Pen was able to knock out the Socialist candidate for President, Lionel Jospin and enter the run-off against the incumbent President Jacques Chirac. - yet Le Pen was crushed in the second round as voters decided that even the compromised and corrupt Chirac was a better choice that the bluntly racist Le Pen. Alarmed by the rise of the Front National, the politicians of the Gaullist right adopted several key policies of the FN, and for a while the threat seems to have receded- certainly the FN did not perform well in the 2011 regional elections.
Yet in recent weeks, the opinion polls are showing an increasing momentum behind Le Pen's youngest daughter, Marine, in her campaign for the Presidency in 2012. At the moment the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande is ahead, even though he is usually described as a lacklustre or wooden figure, often outshone by his glamorous former partner, Segolene Royal.
Nicolas Sarkozy has proven himself to be a tough fighter- but he remains unpopular and is struggling in the polls- as Marine Le Pen continues to close the gap. The point is that Marine Le Pen does not have the blunt-to-the-point-of-brutal manner of her father. She is riding the wave of the the unpopularity of the Euro and the wider European Union project.
At the moment the conventional wisdom is that Hollande and Sarkozy will face each other in the run-off. However, if Sarkozy were to lose to Le Pen in the first round, then the second round could be a rather different affair than in 2002. Chirac was able to appeal across the political spectrum- yet Hollande is too much a man of the left to be able to do that- at best, Marine Le Pen would score a higher result than her father did a decade ago.
What about at worst?
Though the chances may be small, I do not think we can rule out entirely a Le Pen victory. The concerns of Euro sceptics have only grown over the past five years- and I for one have heard forthright support for Le Pen from very surprising quarters. Of course such a result would be a political earthquake- but as the No vote in 2005 showed, the French are not afraid of political earthquakes- indeed they seem to enjoy rocking the establishment boat.
It may be a small chance today- but Le Pen has momentum and the French voters are in an angry mood- so even such a radical an idea as victory for Marine Le Pen can not be entirely dismissed.
The latest alliance- of President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel at first sight looks like only the latest in a long series of Paris-Berlin (or Bonn) arrangements that have come to constitute the "Franco-German motor" of the EU.
Yet the signs are there, for all who can read them, that all is not well.
The attempts to rationalise and reform the European Union that have been underway for over a decade culminated in the EU Constitution: a document primarily crafted be a former French President- Valery Giscard d'Estaing- and full of the phraseology that L'Academie Francaise could approve- or even understand. Yet as we know, the French rejected the document in a decisive referendum. Although another founding member- the Netherlands- also rejected the document a few days later, it was the French rejection that was fatal to the project.
Yet France has long possessed significant anti-federalist, even Euro sceptic, political forces. These have tended to group into the anti-capitalist parties of the extreme left and the ultra-Gaullist believers in the French nation state who shade into the Pujardist and ultra nationalist Front National. As the left continues its slow decay, it has become the Front National that has been the primary standard bearer of Euro Scepticism, based upon a certain idea of French identity and nationalism.
Yet the leadership of the Front National, under the ex-soldier, Jean Marie Le Pen has not made the political breakthrough that they hoped. In 2002, despite the strong hostility of the media, Le Pen was able to knock out the Socialist candidate for President, Lionel Jospin and enter the run-off against the incumbent President Jacques Chirac. - yet Le Pen was crushed in the second round as voters decided that even the compromised and corrupt Chirac was a better choice that the bluntly racist Le Pen. Alarmed by the rise of the Front National, the politicians of the Gaullist right adopted several key policies of the FN, and for a while the threat seems to have receded- certainly the FN did not perform well in the 2011 regional elections.
Yet in recent weeks, the opinion polls are showing an increasing momentum behind Le Pen's youngest daughter, Marine, in her campaign for the Presidency in 2012. At the moment the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande is ahead, even though he is usually described as a lacklustre or wooden figure, often outshone by his glamorous former partner, Segolene Royal.
Nicolas Sarkozy has proven himself to be a tough fighter- but he remains unpopular and is struggling in the polls- as Marine Le Pen continues to close the gap. The point is that Marine Le Pen does not have the blunt-to-the-point-of-brutal manner of her father. She is riding the wave of the the unpopularity of the Euro and the wider European Union project.
At the moment the conventional wisdom is that Hollande and Sarkozy will face each other in the run-off. However, if Sarkozy were to lose to Le Pen in the first round, then the second round could be a rather different affair than in 2002. Chirac was able to appeal across the political spectrum- yet Hollande is too much a man of the left to be able to do that- at best, Marine Le Pen would score a higher result than her father did a decade ago.
What about at worst?
Though the chances may be small, I do not think we can rule out entirely a Le Pen victory. The concerns of Euro sceptics have only grown over the past five years- and I for one have heard forthright support for Le Pen from very surprising quarters. Of course such a result would be a political earthquake- but as the No vote in 2005 showed, the French are not afraid of political earthquakes- indeed they seem to enjoy rocking the establishment boat.
It may be a small chance today- but Le Pen has momentum and the French voters are in an angry mood- so even such a radical an idea as victory for Marine Le Pen can not be entirely dismissed.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Why Labour could still be doomed
Too often we forget that the British Labour movement is built upon a Socialist foundation. Although Blair and Brown sought to create a new, pragmatic version of Socialism, as Harold Wilson tried to do before them, the reality remains that the deepest instincts of the Labour Party remain collectivist and tribal.
Since the fall of the Brown government in 2010, the party has struggled to address the root causes of the financial crisis- which are as much about the follies of the state as about the follies of the bankers. Until this week, the leadership of Labour rejected the idea that the only way to recovery was through austerity, preferring instead to assert that a return to growth required continuing high levels of government expenditure. Even now the slight shift in the Labour attack on the coalition still leaves Labour on the side of fiscal incontinence.
Yet even this pretty minor shift has been greeted with rage by the Unions, which remain the core of the Labour Movement and the primary backers of the party. Eds Balls and Miliband are still trying to have it all ways. Yet this intellectual dishonesty is now coupled with a sense that the Labour leadership is losing the plot- it is not just the personal attacks on Ed Miliband, which themselves reflect unhappiness with the direction of his leadership, as much as his personal qualities.
The problem is that Labour policy is based on the deepest instincts of the Labour movement- which are at heart anti capitalist. Len McCluskey's comments reflect a deep ambivalence about the entire capitalist economic system- yet offers no answers about what any viable alternatives might be. We have to get capitalism working again -even if we can include a broader range of ownership- such as mutuals- because there is no other system realistically on offer.
It is this intellectual failure by Socialists that undermines Labour as a viable alternative government. The failure of the New Labour project now leaves the party with nothing but the threadbare nostrums of a hundred years ago. The party is out of ideas and increasingly out of energy.
There has been much gloating over the supposed demise of the Liberal Democrats since they took the difficult and dangerous decision to join the coalition. The latest polls certainly make grim reading. Yet at least the party retains its intellectual vigour- and increasingly, whatever the problems for Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband's problems seem worse. A recovery in the Liberal Democrat's fortunes can not be ruled out.
Neither can a further decline in Labour fortunes. The strange nature of electoral outcomes in a three party system may yet condemn Labour to further defeat. They certainly deserve it.
Since the fall of the Brown government in 2010, the party has struggled to address the root causes of the financial crisis- which are as much about the follies of the state as about the follies of the bankers. Until this week, the leadership of Labour rejected the idea that the only way to recovery was through austerity, preferring instead to assert that a return to growth required continuing high levels of government expenditure. Even now the slight shift in the Labour attack on the coalition still leaves Labour on the side of fiscal incontinence.
Yet even this pretty minor shift has been greeted with rage by the Unions, which remain the core of the Labour Movement and the primary backers of the party. Eds Balls and Miliband are still trying to have it all ways. Yet this intellectual dishonesty is now coupled with a sense that the Labour leadership is losing the plot- it is not just the personal attacks on Ed Miliband, which themselves reflect unhappiness with the direction of his leadership, as much as his personal qualities.
The problem is that Labour policy is based on the deepest instincts of the Labour movement- which are at heart anti capitalist. Len McCluskey's comments reflect a deep ambivalence about the entire capitalist economic system- yet offers no answers about what any viable alternatives might be. We have to get capitalism working again -even if we can include a broader range of ownership- such as mutuals- because there is no other system realistically on offer.
It is this intellectual failure by Socialists that undermines Labour as a viable alternative government. The failure of the New Labour project now leaves the party with nothing but the threadbare nostrums of a hundred years ago. The party is out of ideas and increasingly out of energy.
There has been much gloating over the supposed demise of the Liberal Democrats since they took the difficult and dangerous decision to join the coalition. The latest polls certainly make grim reading. Yet at least the party retains its intellectual vigour- and increasingly, whatever the problems for Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband's problems seem worse. A recovery in the Liberal Democrat's fortunes can not be ruled out.
Neither can a further decline in Labour fortunes. The strange nature of electoral outcomes in a three party system may yet condemn Labour to further defeat. They certainly deserve it.
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