I have come down for a few days to Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania.
I am here to participate in the Lithuanian World Economic Forum an event which last took place 17 years ago, but has been revived in conjunction with the celebrations of the Millenium of the Lithuanian state and the reign of Vilnius as European capital of culture 2009.
It is a very Lithuanian affair, and the several hundred delegates have all been selected as "foreign Lithuanians". It is in fact an outreach to the hundreds of thousands of sucessful Lithuanian ex-pats. I suppose it is a tribute to the longevity of my relationship with Lithuania that I am one of the very few non-Lithuanian speakers to have been invited. I am, apparently, a Lithuanian ex-pat, resident in Estonia.
The fatted calf has certainly been slaughtered in honour of these particular prodigals: yesterday the outgoing President, Valdus Adamkus hosted the first session at the Presidential Palace, and several of the most prominent members of the government- notably the foreign minister and the economy minister- have been active participants in the conference.
I too have made a contribution, being part of a panel with the Prime Minister and some of the best known Lithuanian investment professionals (and Bill Clinton's Deputy Treasury secretary who wife is Lithuanian). It is refreshing to see how open the political leaders of this country are and Mr. Kubilius accepted comments with a grace and intelligence that would be astonishing if it had come from the mouth of-say- Gordon Brown. His wry comments about the extraordinary difficulties that his government has to work with were greeted with appreciation- even by his political opponents. Yet the government situation, despite the relatively recent general election, is in a certain amount of flux- all Ministers must await reconfirmation after the new President, Dalia Grybauskaite, is sworn in next week.
Nevertheless, despite the financial crisis there is a definite air of celebration in the air. July 6th, is a national holiday- commemorating the coronation of King Mindaugas in 1253. In addition to the Capital of Culture, it is also the five yearly occasion of the Lithuanian song festival, where choirs of tens of thousands are watched by an even larger audience. Although the economic position is indeed grave, Lithuanians seem determined to enjoy the muggy days of the brief summer here and get back to work when the parties are over.
I shall drive back to Tallinn tomorrow- the slow roads making the journey a bit of a hike- three and a half hours to Riga and then another three hours back to the Estonian capital. Then I shall reflect on the determination of Lithuanians to reach out and the equal determination of the Estonians not to.
Friday, July 03, 2009
Thursday, July 02, 2009
The coming Russian implosion
The narrow cabal of four KGB officers that controls Russia under Vladimir Putin has a brutally Manichean view of power. They do not believe in mutually beneficial negotiations, but only in the effective wielding of control. Thus they are a dangerous factor in the international community since any success for the West, by definition, must imply a loss for Russia. Even worse, Putin has a grievance against the current world order: he explicitly laments the fall of the USSR and intends to reconstruct the old power relationships whether using the power of Russian resources and money or- as in Georgia and Moldova- using Russian military power.
Having acquired power by underhand means- planting bombs that killed 300 people- it was always clear how ruthless the Putin clique was. Yet, in the end this very ruthlessness was part of his attraction to the Russian people. Putin acquired respect, precisely because of his KGB heritage. He projected competence, in sharp contrast to the last years of the hapless Boris Yeltsin. Furthermore this image of competence was underpinned by the huge flow of money into Russia as the oil price surged and the prices of all commodities doubled in the last crazed year or two of the boom. Putin's decision to focuss his attention on oil and gas did not look risky- it looked inspired.
Yet over the last year the oil gusher has fizzled out and the clear risks of concentration on extractive industries are now obvious. National income has fallen dramatically, and the Rouble has faltered in the currency markets. Now, a report from Fitch underlines the dreadful state of health of the Russian banking system. At least $22 billion of new capital is needed, and with losses mounting by the month, that sum could end up becoming over $60 billion. Meanwhile, in a futile attempt to ease the decline of the Rouble, Russia has seen its once healthy reserves fall at a spectacular rate. In the face of multiple calls on the public purse, including a dramatic increase in military expenditure-even the $300 billion of reserves that Russia had last year could be quickly squandered.
Meanwhile unrest continues to grow. The sudden imposition of an import tax on second hand cars- more or less the sole profitable business in Vladivostok- caused riots in the Russian Far East . Meanwhile government decisions become more dramatic and arbitrary in the face of ever worsening economic predictions. Now, however, we begin to see the Putin regime in a new light. During a carefully staged trip to a local supermarket, Putin demanded that the price of sausage be cut. Such populist gesturing has become a hallmark of Putin's rule- but it underlines a growing feeling that Putin is- whisper it- incompetent. The ludicrous misunderstanding of economics serves to show that Vladimir Putin is not a populist in touch with the national mood, but a fool who retains his Soviet mindset in economics as he has in geopolitics. His increasingly arbitrary statements reflect a man who is losing touch with reality.
Meanwhile the slow smoulder of instability in the Caucasus, restrained in the short term, shows that Putin's claim of victory in Grozny is all too hollow.
The pressure on the regime is growing stronger. The outlook is increasingly unstable, with even the moderate increase in the oil price failing to ease the pressure. With the outlook growing bleaker in the financial markets that pressure is set to grow dramatically. The increasingly arbitrary and incompetent Mr. Putin is on the eve of his toughest test.
It may not be one that he survives.
Having acquired power by underhand means- planting bombs that killed 300 people- it was always clear how ruthless the Putin clique was. Yet, in the end this very ruthlessness was part of his attraction to the Russian people. Putin acquired respect, precisely because of his KGB heritage. He projected competence, in sharp contrast to the last years of the hapless Boris Yeltsin. Furthermore this image of competence was underpinned by the huge flow of money into Russia as the oil price surged and the prices of all commodities doubled in the last crazed year or two of the boom. Putin's decision to focuss his attention on oil and gas did not look risky- it looked inspired.
Yet over the last year the oil gusher has fizzled out and the clear risks of concentration on extractive industries are now obvious. National income has fallen dramatically, and the Rouble has faltered in the currency markets. Now, a report from Fitch underlines the dreadful state of health of the Russian banking system. At least $22 billion of new capital is needed, and with losses mounting by the month, that sum could end up becoming over $60 billion. Meanwhile, in a futile attempt to ease the decline of the Rouble, Russia has seen its once healthy reserves fall at a spectacular rate. In the face of multiple calls on the public purse, including a dramatic increase in military expenditure-even the $300 billion of reserves that Russia had last year could be quickly squandered.
Meanwhile unrest continues to grow. The sudden imposition of an import tax on second hand cars- more or less the sole profitable business in Vladivostok- caused riots in the Russian Far East . Meanwhile government decisions become more dramatic and arbitrary in the face of ever worsening economic predictions. Now, however, we begin to see the Putin regime in a new light. During a carefully staged trip to a local supermarket, Putin demanded that the price of sausage be cut. Such populist gesturing has become a hallmark of Putin's rule- but it underlines a growing feeling that Putin is- whisper it- incompetent. The ludicrous misunderstanding of economics serves to show that Vladimir Putin is not a populist in touch with the national mood, but a fool who retains his Soviet mindset in economics as he has in geopolitics. His increasingly arbitrary statements reflect a man who is losing touch with reality.
Meanwhile the slow smoulder of instability in the Caucasus, restrained in the short term, shows that Putin's claim of victory in Grozny is all too hollow.
The pressure on the regime is growing stronger. The outlook is increasingly unstable, with even the moderate increase in the oil price failing to ease the pressure. With the outlook growing bleaker in the financial markets that pressure is set to grow dramatically. The increasingly arbitrary and incompetent Mr. Putin is on the eve of his toughest test.
It may not be one that he survives.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
A Parliament of Hacks
The hot dog days of Summer bring an even greater ennui to the fetid business of politics.
Flaming June gives way to a muggy July and few in the political world are doing more than look forward to the escape from Westminster. John Redwood argues that this exodus amounts to Parliament being part time. In his occasionally populist way, he argues that the sessions of Parliament should be longer. Most MPs, especially those in marginal seats might argue that they have plenty to do in their constituencies, and most constituencies are a long way from London, unlike leafy Wokingham. But actually is Mr. Redwood's fundamental idea actually right?
Actually I think he is dead wrong.
Parliament is- or ought to be- a council of the nation, bringing individuals with wider experience and differing interests together to control the public purse and pass legislation as required. Until recently the idea of a full time, professional politician would have seemed ridiculous. Political figures were those who, after having made considerable personal achievements, would devote their talents to the service of the state. Such service was not to be actually paid for by the nation at all. Sure in the past, the perquisites of office led to a measure of corruption, the Cabal and the Lloyd George sale of peerages only some of a long list. Yet, particularly in the nineteenth century the idea of public service was one that imbued the whole ethos of the Mother of Parliaments.
Yet now, in the twenty-first century, the idea of a politician who gains their sole remuneration from public service has taken such a hold that David Cameron now seeks to ban all second, non Parliamentary jobs for Conservative MPs.
Yet can I be alone in thinking that the creation of a full time Parliament of political hacks is precisely what we should NOT be doing?
If Mr. Redwood is right and we have a part-time Parliament, then what, precisely, is wrong with that? The longer Parliament sits, the more unnecessary legislation it will be tempted to pass, and the less MPs will interact with anyone else outside the political class. It is the isolated nature of the political class that has got Parliament into such low public esteem as it is.
In the battle of ideas, the Conservatives are not putting forward any ideological reason why the voters should pick them. Their sole clear policy objective seems to be to repeal the ban on hunting with dogs. To be honest one can only hope that this policy generates such heat and light that it stops political meddling in far more important matters. Yet if ideas are in short supply, it is now, at least becoming clear what political style Mr. Cameron hopes to follow.
The next Parliament is set to see a huge turnover of MPs, as many are either defeated or retire, and many will say good riddance to many of those who depart. The question is, what kind of Parliamentarians will replace them.
They must not have a second job or outside interests.
They will have come up through the standard career path for politicians, think tanks, "advisor" non jobs or possibly from having been a local councillor (full time and professional, of course).
They will be compliant and loyal.
I could hardly think of a better definition of a Parliament of Eunuchs.
Cameron -as a political hack himself- seems to want to finally close the door on any MP who has not come to the job without being a paid-up member of the political class.
If his front bench politely decline his diktat that second jobs should be abandoned, then I and many others, will be cheering them on.
The sanctimonious political hacks will cry foul and seek to smear second jobs as making their holders less committed to the work of Parliament. Yet frankly I see a second job as something that should be compulsory for MPs. That way they would engage with the electorate as something more than simply those whose votes they need to join the political class.
Parliament -I think- would actually be better for being part time.
Flaming June gives way to a muggy July and few in the political world are doing more than look forward to the escape from Westminster. John Redwood argues that this exodus amounts to Parliament being part time. In his occasionally populist way, he argues that the sessions of Parliament should be longer. Most MPs, especially those in marginal seats might argue that they have plenty to do in their constituencies, and most constituencies are a long way from London, unlike leafy Wokingham. But actually is Mr. Redwood's fundamental idea actually right?
Actually I think he is dead wrong.
Parliament is- or ought to be- a council of the nation, bringing individuals with wider experience and differing interests together to control the public purse and pass legislation as required. Until recently the idea of a full time, professional politician would have seemed ridiculous. Political figures were those who, after having made considerable personal achievements, would devote their talents to the service of the state. Such service was not to be actually paid for by the nation at all. Sure in the past, the perquisites of office led to a measure of corruption, the Cabal and the Lloyd George sale of peerages only some of a long list. Yet, particularly in the nineteenth century the idea of public service was one that imbued the whole ethos of the Mother of Parliaments.
Yet now, in the twenty-first century, the idea of a politician who gains their sole remuneration from public service has taken such a hold that David Cameron now seeks to ban all second, non Parliamentary jobs for Conservative MPs.
Yet can I be alone in thinking that the creation of a full time Parliament of political hacks is precisely what we should NOT be doing?
If Mr. Redwood is right and we have a part-time Parliament, then what, precisely, is wrong with that? The longer Parliament sits, the more unnecessary legislation it will be tempted to pass, and the less MPs will interact with anyone else outside the political class. It is the isolated nature of the political class that has got Parliament into such low public esteem as it is.
In the battle of ideas, the Conservatives are not putting forward any ideological reason why the voters should pick them. Their sole clear policy objective seems to be to repeal the ban on hunting with dogs. To be honest one can only hope that this policy generates such heat and light that it stops political meddling in far more important matters. Yet if ideas are in short supply, it is now, at least becoming clear what political style Mr. Cameron hopes to follow.
The next Parliament is set to see a huge turnover of MPs, as many are either defeated or retire, and many will say good riddance to many of those who depart. The question is, what kind of Parliamentarians will replace them.
They must not have a second job or outside interests.
They will have come up through the standard career path for politicians, think tanks, "advisor" non jobs or possibly from having been a local councillor (full time and professional, of course).
They will be compliant and loyal.
I could hardly think of a better definition of a Parliament of Eunuchs.
Cameron -as a political hack himself- seems to want to finally close the door on any MP who has not come to the job without being a paid-up member of the political class.
If his front bench politely decline his diktat that second jobs should be abandoned, then I and many others, will be cheering them on.
The sanctimonious political hacks will cry foul and seek to smear second jobs as making their holders less committed to the work of Parliament. Yet frankly I see a second job as something that should be compulsory for MPs. That way they would engage with the electorate as something more than simply those whose votes they need to join the political class.
Parliament -I think- would actually be better for being part time.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
The Party's over
I becoming confused about where necessary restraint stops and the politics of envy begins.
The latest boondoggle from the BBC, after the absurdly overblown coverage of the US Presidential election and the even more bloated coverage of the Beijing Olympic games now seems to be the huge numbers of BBC people "covering"- well at least present at the Glastonbury festival.
Naturally the less well funded- or at least not publicly funded- sections of the media look with green eyes on the well upholstered expense accounts of the national broadcaster. In the face of repeated attacks from Murdoch media outlets, the BBC generally made a case that the money grubbing Philistines from News International "would say that, wouldn't they" and the great and the good who comprise BBC governors would generally look the other way.
However the Daily Telegraph- owned by the Barclay Brothers, who live in tax exile in Sark- may be made of sterner stuff. The poison that the coverage of MPs expenses has unleashed into the British political system may not stop at Parliament. The BBC management clearly does not understand that the culture of excess of the last 10 years has come to a very firm halt, and that green-eyed, jealous coverage of anything deemed to be excessive will become the norm across British life.
I for one would welcome greater restraint in the media, however as far as Parliament is concerned, I fear for the future.
With the effective banning of any extra-Parliamentary income for MPs, we must resign ourselves to our Parliamentarians being of similar calibre to their income peers: senior salespeople, for example.
Trim by all means, but for most MPs, the job was not about money- unlike, say the media. Sure there have been a few who lined their nests, but the price of being an MP- in divorce, ill health and alcoholism has always been high. Now, the unrestrained envy and opprobrium that the Barclay's have unleashed makes being a politician an even less attractive job.
At least the bloated BBC gets to go to Glasto, rather than an all-night sitting on the budget.
I fear that we must now expect pursed lips and tut-tutting to become the standard journalist fare for the near future. Thank goodness I am out of the country: this kind of hypocritical puritanism will be very unpleasant- even if some of it is indeed necessary.
The latest boondoggle from the BBC, after the absurdly overblown coverage of the US Presidential election and the even more bloated coverage of the Beijing Olympic games now seems to be the huge numbers of BBC people "covering"- well at least present at the Glastonbury festival.
Naturally the less well funded- or at least not publicly funded- sections of the media look with green eyes on the well upholstered expense accounts of the national broadcaster. In the face of repeated attacks from Murdoch media outlets, the BBC generally made a case that the money grubbing Philistines from News International "would say that, wouldn't they" and the great and the good who comprise BBC governors would generally look the other way.
However the Daily Telegraph- owned by the Barclay Brothers, who live in tax exile in Sark- may be made of sterner stuff. The poison that the coverage of MPs expenses has unleashed into the British political system may not stop at Parliament. The BBC management clearly does not understand that the culture of excess of the last 10 years has come to a very firm halt, and that green-eyed, jealous coverage of anything deemed to be excessive will become the norm across British life.
I for one would welcome greater restraint in the media, however as far as Parliament is concerned, I fear for the future.
With the effective banning of any extra-Parliamentary income for MPs, we must resign ourselves to our Parliamentarians being of similar calibre to their income peers: senior salespeople, for example.
Trim by all means, but for most MPs, the job was not about money- unlike, say the media. Sure there have been a few who lined their nests, but the price of being an MP- in divorce, ill health and alcoholism has always been high. Now, the unrestrained envy and opprobrium that the Barclay's have unleashed makes being a politician an even less attractive job.
At least the bloated BBC gets to go to Glasto, rather than an all-night sitting on the budget.
I fear that we must now expect pursed lips and tut-tutting to become the standard journalist fare for the near future. Thank goodness I am out of the country: this kind of hypocritical puritanism will be very unpleasant- even if some of it is indeed necessary.
Friday, June 26, 2009
The Media Way of Death
Well, I suppose the Onion.com is a reasonable place to consider the death of the "King of Pop".
Given the astonishing abuse of his body through needless drugs and needless surgery, I guess fifty was not too bad an innings, but as usual the po-faced media will glory in the shroud waving: no cliche will be left unstated as the endless recycling of the story of "someone you've heard of dies unexpectedly, relatively young" now allows them to make more sales.
It is not pretty.
I can not make too many deep statements- I suppose his best song was "Billie Jean", which is not exactly a meditation, even if it is a good record. Was he a pervert? On balance probably yes. Was he a victim? On balance, probably yes to this too. Beyond those two questions, and his music, I wonder how many people would really be able to work out what particular message this particular short-ish life gives us.
That we are all mortal? We should really all know that.
Talent does not insulate us from the pain of living? We knew that already too.
Bad parenting can twist you? A message that I hope his orphaned kids do not have to learn: but the lawyers are already circling.
The problem is that, whatever the media may try to pretend, death is not exceptional.
Perhaps the kindest thing we could do is to show compassion to those who are so close to death- try to treat them with respect and dignity.
The problem is that all of us are indeed so close to death that we can touch it.
We just pretend and try to ignore it.
Given the astonishing abuse of his body through needless drugs and needless surgery, I guess fifty was not too bad an innings, but as usual the po-faced media will glory in the shroud waving: no cliche will be left unstated as the endless recycling of the story of "someone you've heard of dies unexpectedly, relatively young" now allows them to make more sales.
It is not pretty.
I can not make too many deep statements- I suppose his best song was "Billie Jean", which is not exactly a meditation, even if it is a good record. Was he a pervert? On balance probably yes. Was he a victim? On balance, probably yes to this too. Beyond those two questions, and his music, I wonder how many people would really be able to work out what particular message this particular short-ish life gives us.
That we are all mortal? We should really all know that.
Talent does not insulate us from the pain of living? We knew that already too.
Bad parenting can twist you? A message that I hope his orphaned kids do not have to learn: but the lawyers are already circling.
The problem is that, whatever the media may try to pretend, death is not exceptional.
Perhaps the kindest thing we could do is to show compassion to those who are so close to death- try to treat them with respect and dignity.
The problem is that all of us are indeed so close to death that we can touch it.
We just pretend and try to ignore it.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Summertime in Tallinn
The sun is high in the sky and unusually for Tallinn it is actually hot. The Baltic sea turns white, to match the sky of the long twilight. The sun barely dips below the horizon at sunset, leaving the sky pink until the dawn. The white nights are when Estonians celebrate the northern summer.
The past few days have shown the medieval city of Tallinn it its finest colours, and though the tourists conspire to block the main streets of the old city, there remain quiet corners where the shadows cool the heat. The cats of the old town doze on the granite cobbles.
The sky is clearest blue with a few clouds dangling on the edge of the horizon.
I spent the St. John's Day holiday away from Tallinn in the deepest Estonian countryside. A friend who got married on Monday invited us to his Talu- farm- and the traditional features of the holiday went ahead. The Bonfire was lit as the twilight gathered and the dawn, Koit, and Dusk, Hammarik, were said to kiss for the only day of the year. As the flames died down, in keeping with tradition, I jumped over the fire for good luck. A sauna, a barbecue and beer comprised the bulk of the evening. It is practically proverbial that it rains on Jaanipaev, but this year the weather remained warm and dry, with only a breeze to disturb the silence.
The Royal Navy and Royal Air Force that came to help the Estonians celebrate the holiday have left- the RAF with a low level and very loud fly past over the Old City before they return to Scotland. The point, I suppose is that the RAF can still get to Tallinn in less than an hour- a point that would not be lost on the Russian Embassy here.
With a snort of satisfaction I turn to the weather on the BBC and see lower temperatures and even rain forecast in the UK. Meanwhile in the blazing sunshine, I prepare for my trip to Vilnius next week. Exhausted from lack of sleep due to the constant daylight, I remember the cold and dark of winter as though it belongs to a different country.
The past few days have shown the medieval city of Tallinn it its finest colours, and though the tourists conspire to block the main streets of the old city, there remain quiet corners where the shadows cool the heat. The cats of the old town doze on the granite cobbles.
The sky is clearest blue with a few clouds dangling on the edge of the horizon.
I spent the St. John's Day holiday away from Tallinn in the deepest Estonian countryside. A friend who got married on Monday invited us to his Talu- farm- and the traditional features of the holiday went ahead. The Bonfire was lit as the twilight gathered and the dawn, Koit, and Dusk, Hammarik, were said to kiss for the only day of the year. As the flames died down, in keeping with tradition, I jumped over the fire for good luck. A sauna, a barbecue and beer comprised the bulk of the evening. It is practically proverbial that it rains on Jaanipaev, but this year the weather remained warm and dry, with only a breeze to disturb the silence.
The Royal Navy and Royal Air Force that came to help the Estonians celebrate the holiday have left- the RAF with a low level and very loud fly past over the Old City before they return to Scotland. The point, I suppose is that the RAF can still get to Tallinn in less than an hour- a point that would not be lost on the Russian Embassy here.
With a snort of satisfaction I turn to the weather on the BBC and see lower temperatures and even rain forecast in the UK. Meanwhile in the blazing sunshine, I prepare for my trip to Vilnius next week. Exhausted from lack of sleep due to the constant daylight, I remember the cold and dark of winter as though it belongs to a different country.
Monday, June 22, 2009
The Real World
I am sure that large numbers of political anoraks are delighted by the unveiling of the new Conservative-led group in the European Parliament...
It is, of course, a total joke.
The Tory allies consist of the most marginal and irrelevant parties in the EU. They could not even get Bulgarians to join them.Their major allies are the PiS- Law and Justice party- in Poland: led by a man who proudly admits to not having a bank account, just before he says he would like to send gay men, like Alan Duncan and Iain Dale to jail, but only because he can't hang them. Even in Poland Jarek Kaczynski is a joke: in Britain he is, and should be, a ridiculous laughing stock.
As for the Czech ODS: their former leader has been photographed showing his shortcomings to some attractive female in Signor Berlusconi's villa. (noticeably even Berlusconi's party find joining up with the Tories too embarrassing). The Czechs too are headed for electoral oblivion, indeed that does seem to be the uniting thread amongst these marginal, excessively right wing, parties which the Tories prefer to the real right wing parties that actually run their countries and, indeed, the European Parliament itself.
The successful right wing parties of Estonia and Poland, Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Germany, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, and France, amongst others, now recognise that British Conservatives have more in common with Jean-Marie Le Pen than with any mainstream Christian Democrat party.
Cameron needs help in Europe: but he will get nothing and deserves nothing.
In fact this contemptible joke would be hilarious, if it were not so serious.
The fact is that the European Union needs a great deal of commitment and hard work to enact the required reforms that most recognise are necessary. This farce makes the Conservatives in Europe more or less the equivalent of Lord Sutch- and about as relevant as a dead person can be.
The Tories are not a serious party- why should anyone else take them seriously?
Cameron, were he to be elected was already on course for a very short honeymoon. After this ludicrous strategic stupidity, his honeymoon may be so short that he never makes to number 10 Downing St. at all.
It is, of course, a total joke.
The Tory allies consist of the most marginal and irrelevant parties in the EU. They could not even get Bulgarians to join them.Their major allies are the PiS- Law and Justice party- in Poland: led by a man who proudly admits to not having a bank account, just before he says he would like to send gay men, like Alan Duncan and Iain Dale to jail, but only because he can't hang them. Even in Poland Jarek Kaczynski is a joke: in Britain he is, and should be, a ridiculous laughing stock.
As for the Czech ODS: their former leader has been photographed showing his shortcomings to some attractive female in Signor Berlusconi's villa. (noticeably even Berlusconi's party find joining up with the Tories too embarrassing). The Czechs too are headed for electoral oblivion, indeed that does seem to be the uniting thread amongst these marginal, excessively right wing, parties which the Tories prefer to the real right wing parties that actually run their countries and, indeed, the European Parliament itself.
The successful right wing parties of Estonia and Poland, Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Germany, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, Romania, and France, amongst others, now recognise that British Conservatives have more in common with Jean-Marie Le Pen than with any mainstream Christian Democrat party.
Cameron needs help in Europe: but he will get nothing and deserves nothing.
In fact this contemptible joke would be hilarious, if it were not so serious.
The fact is that the European Union needs a great deal of commitment and hard work to enact the required reforms that most recognise are necessary. This farce makes the Conservatives in Europe more or less the equivalent of Lord Sutch- and about as relevant as a dead person can be.
The Tories are not a serious party- why should anyone else take them seriously?
Cameron, were he to be elected was already on course for a very short honeymoon. After this ludicrous strategic stupidity, his honeymoon may be so short that he never makes to number 10 Downing St. at all.
Carrier Wave
The usual excuse for not blogging: pressure of work, will not apply. The fact is that the weather in Tallinn is so sunny and pleasant that the idea of writing has become something of a chore.
However as I look across the shining waters of the Bay of Tallinn, my eyes are drawn to the low shape of HMS Illustrious, which has come alongside the Tallinn cruise ship quay. The sailors will take part in tonight's unveiling of the Freedom monument by President Ilves. Tomorrow is Victory day- the anniversary of the defeat in 1919 by the Estonians and Latvians of the Baltic German army under General von der Goltz. Tonight, just before midnight, the monument will finally be unveiled, accompanied by a premiere of a new oratorio by Urmas Sisask. The Royal Navy will be present in recognition of the role that it played in the War of Liberation as the most powerful allies of the Estonians in their struggle for freedom against both Bolsheviks and Baltic Germans.
Yet although the pride of the Royal Navy, it is hard not to notice how small Illustrious actually is. Moored next to one of the larger cruise ships, the Aircraft carrier is dwarfed by her neighbour. The fact is that these carriers were built as anti submarine warfare platforms, but from the beginning, they have been asked to take on much wider roles, including flags ships for our force in the gulf and off shore support for Afghanistan. It is quite clear that the much larger vessels of the new Queen Elizabeth class which are due to replace the Invincible class carriers after 2016 are very much overdue.
Yet there is the matter of cost- the combination of replacing the Invincible class carriers and replacing the Vanguard class Nuclear missile submarines is huge, at a time when the defence budget is already stretched by our involvement in so many active military operations and the tight conditions of the economy. It seems very clear that something must give, and given the role of the aircraft carriers in combines operations, it can not be the carriers.
The Conservatives have already suggested that by asking the question of why the British nuclear deterrent must be carried on submarines, the Liberal Democrats are "flaky on defence". Nothing could be further from the truth. The point is that our nuclear deterrent could be delivered in many different ways: by aircraft, land based missiles or by ship based missiles at a fraction of the cost of building new ballistic missile submarines. By reducing the cost of our deterrent, the Liberal Democrats are focusing on the the fact that our conventional armed forces have not been properly funded and seeking to solve it. The scandal of inadequate equipment in both Iraq and Afghanistan has cost lives - and that is unacceptable.
It is Labour and the Conservatives, by trying to ram through a new weapons programme without adequate funding, that are threatening our defence capabilities. It is time to be responsible. The two new aircraft carriers are essential.
The proposed replacement for Trident is an expensive luxury.
However as I look across the shining waters of the Bay of Tallinn, my eyes are drawn to the low shape of HMS Illustrious, which has come alongside the Tallinn cruise ship quay. The sailors will take part in tonight's unveiling of the Freedom monument by President Ilves. Tomorrow is Victory day- the anniversary of the defeat in 1919 by the Estonians and Latvians of the Baltic German army under General von der Goltz. Tonight, just before midnight, the monument will finally be unveiled, accompanied by a premiere of a new oratorio by Urmas Sisask. The Royal Navy will be present in recognition of the role that it played in the War of Liberation as the most powerful allies of the Estonians in their struggle for freedom against both Bolsheviks and Baltic Germans.
Yet although the pride of the Royal Navy, it is hard not to notice how small Illustrious actually is. Moored next to one of the larger cruise ships, the Aircraft carrier is dwarfed by her neighbour. The fact is that these carriers were built as anti submarine warfare platforms, but from the beginning, they have been asked to take on much wider roles, including flags ships for our force in the gulf and off shore support for Afghanistan. It is quite clear that the much larger vessels of the new Queen Elizabeth class which are due to replace the Invincible class carriers after 2016 are very much overdue.
Yet there is the matter of cost- the combination of replacing the Invincible class carriers and replacing the Vanguard class Nuclear missile submarines is huge, at a time when the defence budget is already stretched by our involvement in so many active military operations and the tight conditions of the economy. It seems very clear that something must give, and given the role of the aircraft carriers in combines operations, it can not be the carriers.
The Conservatives have already suggested that by asking the question of why the British nuclear deterrent must be carried on submarines, the Liberal Democrats are "flaky on defence". Nothing could be further from the truth. The point is that our nuclear deterrent could be delivered in many different ways: by aircraft, land based missiles or by ship based missiles at a fraction of the cost of building new ballistic missile submarines. By reducing the cost of our deterrent, the Liberal Democrats are focusing on the the fact that our conventional armed forces have not been properly funded and seeking to solve it. The scandal of inadequate equipment in both Iraq and Afghanistan has cost lives - and that is unacceptable.
It is Labour and the Conservatives, by trying to ram through a new weapons programme without adequate funding, that are threatening our defence capabilities. It is time to be responsible. The two new aircraft carriers are essential.
The proposed replacement for Trident is an expensive luxury.
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