Cicero's Songs

The attacks against the innocent in Paris of course spur a deep compassion for those who have suffered and a righteous anger against those who planned this disgusting act of reckless violence. However, the inevitable call for immediate and violent retribution is giving me some pause. The fact is that with clear hindsight, the response to the attacks of September 11th 2001 was not necessarily the right one, in that the goal of eliminating terrorism was not in fact achieved, indeed the threat of terror has grown, even as the war on terror reaches new heights of violence. It is not that the West should do nothing in response to this outrage, but given the escalation of violence against ISIS is so predictable in the wake of these attacks, we should beware of being manipulated by the ruthless and reckless men behind this Islamic death cult. More to the point, there may be a yet greater conspiracy. There is a clear connection between the Chechens and the emergence of ISIS, and Chechens h...

As the fallout of the government defeat in the House of Commons over the proposed military action against Syria rumbles on, it seems pertinent to ask a few questions. Despite various attempts to place foreign policy analysis in some kind of ethical framework, the fact is that military action exists within a purely Darwinian framework: Right does not prevail, unless it has sufficient might. There are many despicable governments on the planet- including, not least, the government of Russia- but we do not propose to remove their corrupt and criminal incumbents by force. That would be inviting a trial of strength with a foe that has a nuclear arsenal that is quite sufficient to render the concept of victory a meaningless one. The West has disputes with China over human rights that are no less serious that with pre-war Syria, but we do not propose the use of force against Beijing- we use the instruments of soft power and persuasion to try to ameliorate the oppressed in that huge country. ...

The advent of still further protest in Cairo, which has now sparked a military coup, might be seen as just another of the convulsions shaking the Islamic world. The Islamist government in Ankara continues to face public outcry and even in Iran, the election of a relative moderate is seen as a significant defeat for the ultra-conservative "supreme leader" of the Islamic Republic. It is easy to dismiss these convulsions as just another example of the instability of the Islamic world in general and the Near and Middle East in particular. Some wiseacres now suggest that the revolutions in North Africa have been a wrong turn, and that the dictatorships that preceded them were somehow better, since they provided stability and order as opposed to chaos and violence. Personally I find it quite hard to share this opinion. The fact is that the largely military regimes provided the stability of the grave and were long past their sell-by date. The fact that such violence has exploded a...

As regular readers know, I am very sceptical about the stability of the Russian government. The supposedly large poll leads that Vladimir Putin's United Russia has held always seemed to me to be suspect, given the political history of the country. Although dissent was not open, it was always there. I pointed out that the decision of Vladimir Putin to return to the Presidency was a critical mistake that would not strengthen, but weaken the regime. So it is proving to be. Inside Russia, the "September 24th coup" is now seen as such a blatant disregard of democracy, that even those who previously supported Putin have begun to disassociate themselves from his government. The fact is that the Putinistas  by ignoring the voters completely, were placing themselves above the constitution. The result is a chorus of contempt that is going to derail Mr. Putin's plans to remain in power for a further two Presidential terms, and may even stop Mr. Putin from returning to power at...

Restored Libyan Flag Soon to be Syrian flag again The Libyan revolution saw the restoration of the pre-Gadaffi flag . Today in yet another tumultuous demonstration in Syria, I saw that the crowds had swapped the Assad-era flag of Red-White-Black with two green stars on the white stripe, for the flag above. As the news comes in of a major attack against the feared Air Force intelligence by the Free Syrian Army, it is increasingly clear that Bashar Al-Assad is losing his grip on power. An ambush earlier this week, again said to have been carried out by the FSA, left 34 government soldiers dead.  France has recalled its ambassador, and the country now faces increasing isolation and probable sanctions if the situation continues to get worse. It is really only a question of time before the regime must fall, and if Assad wants to avoid the fate of Gadaffi, then he should open negotiations as soon as he can. Yet, he remains his bloodthirsty fathers trusted son and anointed ...

The fall of the Qaddafi compound in Tripoli may not be the precise end of the vile regime, However, I -for one- will mark the fall of the lunatic Colonel with a certain savage delight. The wreckage of the fuselage of Pan Am flight 103 looked like small pieces of paper on the hills around Lockerbie. The gouge in the highway looked like a giant bite into the carriageway. Now, maybe we can find the truth behind that vile and cowardly act. Though it is still a difficult and dangerous time for the Libyan people, it really does seem like the end of a disgusting regime. Our avowed enemies are set to replaced by our avowed friends. For that relief, we should praise those who have helped to bring it about. The battle is not yet finished, but the war surely is. Long live Libyan freedom and democracy! And if that seems a little idealistic, then I would just remind people of the depravity of the regime just removed. The future can only be better than the past.

The speech from Bashar Al-Assad was long awaited. How would he address the crisis in his country? In the end he has bottled it. By failing to recognize that the protesters have legitimate grievances and by making a speech insisting that the unrest in Syria is all the fault of shadowy foreign conspiracies, he may well have condemned himself to death. If he will not enter into a dialogue with the majority in his country, then sooner or later he will be overthrown. A small part of me suspects that the clique that surrounds the Baathist regime in Damascus has got its own agenda that has little to do with the personal survival of Bashar al-Assad, after all the speech that they must have tacitly approved is astonishingly reckless. The days when Bashar was a mild mannered optician at the Western Eye Hospital in London whose interest in politics seemed, at best, tangential are long gone. Indeed the death toll in Syria is already creeping up to the tens of thousands killed in in the time of hi...

I have blogged on the subject of Earthquakes a few times over the years, the last time was during the General election last year. The fact is that several major cities: San Francisco, Istanbul and of course Tokyo, stand in areas of occasionally severe seismic activity. In fact the earthquake that hit Japan was not the one that they expected: along the Kanto fault beneath the City of Tokyo itself, but rather along the plate boundary, somewhat out to sea from the Japanese archipelago. Nevertheless the 'quake when it hit was huge: probably the largest in recorded Japanese history, a possible 9.0 on the Richter scale. As I feared in May, the devastation- largely caused by the tsunami that followed the earthquake itself- has indeed dominated the news agenda. In fact the wall-to-wall coverage of dramatic footage: the quake, the tsunami, the aftermath, and now the explosions at the nuclear stations that have been wrecked by the catastrophe has formed a weird kind of disaster porn. It is ...

As the Libyan despot Gadaffi murders his way across the wreckage of his country, it is beginning to look as though the rebellion stands on the brink of defeat. While Britain and France are trying to muster support for the interim government in Benghazi, continued air raids and merciless attacks with heavy weapons are slow prizing away their grip, even on the eastern half of Libya. It is an appalling situation. In the face of this obvious crime, President Obama seems content to pose as a neutral- seeking a no fly zone- when the time has long past where this would be successful- or other measures that might have the support of the United Nations. Yet the UN is crippled by the determined resistance of the Russian and Chinese governments to international intervention to protect human rights. After all, both Russia and China may face democratic uprisings again soon. Meanwhile the Obama administration, weary of corralling NATO in Afghanistan, does not find any other multi-lateral forum ...

The murderous regime of the sinister and highly irrational Muammar Gaddafi has turned the full force of its military upon its own people. The horrific attacks on civilians have escalated the death toll into the tens of thousands. Indiscriminate brutality is the order of the day from the despot. This is a regime that has not one shred of legitimacy- it has forfited any right to govern. Yet the Libyan people apparently lack the strength to removed the hated and reviled regime. Now Gaddafi is bombing his own oil installations, and the impact on the future of his own country is now creating a global challenge. The unrest across the Arab world is damaging the orderly market for oil and gas in a way that could undermine the prosperity not only of the Western world, but the entire world- rich and poor. If the threat of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction turned out to be a chimera, the threat of Gaddafi's oil destruction is all too real. In the name of the Libyan people and...

Lord Mandelson the former Labour spinmeister has proffered his advice to the son of the outgoing leader of Hell: "I can hardly believe it" he told the Absolutely Unbiased BBC "If only he had called me for advice, as he usually does" "I would have made it clear that threatening to torch the whole Earth and drag mortals into the pit of eternal flame might have been presented differently" he said. "The Satanic Princeling and Lord of Pain might have suggested that warming the planet and offering a bespoke punishment service was, in the end, a net positive". "Colonel Ga-Devil should have emphasized his shared family values, and the dynamically pro-active nature of his commitment to the slaughter of all of his enemies, even unto the last bullet " he said. Lord Mandelson, long known for being a close advisor to the Horned One, was quick to suggest that the media might have got it wrong over the unrest that has left the eternal Cacophony in it...

Times are tough in the world. The banking collapse has brought serious problems in the global flows of money, while the huge growth in Asia has put serious pressure on the price of commodities and energy, especially oil. Global food prices have been rising sharply as the result of several extreme weather events. Indeed this spike in food prices has clearly been a factor in the North African Arab revolt. Even still it is a bit disappointing seeing the English Language press being so down-beat about the events in Libya. Instead of being inspired by the determination of the Libyan people to rid themselves of their vile dictator, there are endless articles about the "terror" of the expats and the fact that the oil price has been rising as a result. Frankly a short term oil spike is a price well worth paying in order to get the Libyan people free from their bondage, and anyway, foreigners do not seem to have been the target of either side. It is not the expats who have been target...

The History of Egypt over the last century has seen two major revolutions: one in 1919, which dispatched the British as direct overlords, and one in 1952 which dispatched the monarchy. When I heard that the flag of 1919 was being waved in Egypt again, I began to realise that the prospects for the Mubarak government are not looking good. They are being very foolish to arrest Mohamed El- Barradei - he may be the only way that the regime can escape with its life. Once the bazaars are pulsating with this much anger, it could be that the regime does not merely pass away, but totally disintegrates, and the breakdown of order in a country as important as Egypt is no small thing. The regime may think that be switching off the Internet and e-mail that it can prevent a revolution - this is surely folly: few revolutions in the past had such tools, but they were still successful. Egypt's revolution could still be determinedly non hi-tech and it might yet be completely successful, with today...