Cicero's Songs

Well, let's not kid ourselves, it was another pretty gruesome night for the Liberal Democrats.  Yet although losses in Kingston, Cambridge, Portsmouth, and Haringey are all painful (with, doubtless more to come, as I write), the fact is that the Lib Dems actually do have a few gleams of comfort amongst the ash. Although these gleams come not so much in the results, but in the implications of the results.  The surge in UKIP support this time is creating problems across the board for both Labour and the Conservatives. In fact Labour must be deeply concerned that they are not hitting as many of their targets as they did in the last round of voting. So although a pretty horrible night for so many Lib Dems, the fact is that in relative terms our pain is not so severe as it has been.  So far, based on these results, we can begin to see the floor of Lib Dem support, and that floor may yet allow the party to defy predictions and play king-maker again in 2015. There is stil...

If we believe the final polls before today's votes, then the UK may look rather different tomorrow. If we believe the polls, the Liberal Democrats will receive a pasting: set to lose up to half their seats on Scotland and several hundred council seats across the country, the party may also be facing a major setback in its quest for British political reform, with the rejection of the AV voting system. Many journalists are forecasting a party in meltdown, with early leadership challenges coming to Nick Clegg . If we believe the polls. the the SNP is set to win close to an outright majority at Holyrood , which will finally give them the opportunity to stage their own referendum on whether of not Scottish separatism should break up the UK. I am not sure how much we should believe the polls, or in any event I am not sure about the message that they convey. I think that the Liberal Democrats will take some heavy punishment, and I am braced for some sad results, yet in fact the party ...

A few weeks ago, the British Labour Party appeared to be advancing on all fronts. They appeared to be way ahead in Scotland, on the brink of deposing the minority Nationalist government at Holyrood. They were poised to take over 1300 council seats, they were likely to win the referendum on AV- a voting system that they originally proposed, in order to gain support from the Liberal Democrats, who support a fully proportional system. Now the situation looks somewhat less bright, the expectations of major council gains remains, but AV may well fail, and the SNP have moved ahead in the Scottish polls. The question now seems to be whether the wheels have fallen off the Labour campaign, and if so, why? Firstly, I must accept that the expectations for the Liberal Democrats remain grim. It seems highly likely that the party will be cleared out of several former local government strongholds, probably including Cornwall. Although there has been a modest recovery in poll support in Scotland, it s...

For those that do not know that I stood for the UK Parliament in High Wycombe in 2005, please excuse my absolute delight at this local election result: Totteridge Ward Steve Guy (Liberal Democrat) 733 Tim Hewish (Conservative) 408 Ian Bates (Labour) 214 Spoilt Papers 3 Turnout 31% Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. Hearty congratulations to Ian Morton, Chairman Wendy, the team and Councillor Steve Guy! Update: My "Aunty Rosemary" took the Aboyne and Upper Deeside from the Conservatives on Aberdeenshire Council. In Inverness we gained just short of 60% of the vote and there were big wins in Redbridge and Waverley too. It really was a very good night for the Liberal Democrats.

Since our beloved Prime Minister chose to avoid going to the country in Autumn 2007, it does not seem hugely likely that he would call a general election in 2008. So, it seems likely that 2008 in British politics will be more interested in local elections than anything else. We have the interesting challenge of the London mayoral elections. This may yet prove to be a more open and interesting contest than it appears. To be honest, the Conservatives, by choosing Boris Johnson, have essentially admitted that the game is up. Although the gaffe-prone and disorganised Henley MP- we are told- is also possessed of finely tuned media antennae, the same could be said of Charlie Caroli . In fact, as at the Ealing Southall by election, it is the weak judgement of David Cameron that fixed on Boris as pretty much the only figure prepared to take on Ken Livingstone. Boris Johnson can not win the London election. Ken Livingstone, however, is increasingly embroiled in his own problems. The disgracefu...