Thursday, January 31, 2008

The End of Fed discipline

When people borrow too much, the best thing that can happen is a large dose of inflation. The nominal value of the debt stays the same, (plus interest) but the real value of the debt falls dramatically.

The second rate cut from the Fed in less than a week now takes interest rates under the US inflation rate.

The consequence will be a sharp fall in the US Dollar. All the massive debts that the US has contracted in Dollars will now fall in real terms.

The Fed is debauching the currency: the cardinal sin of Central Banking.

The consequences will include the end of the US Dollar as the sole reserve currency.

Meanwhile the ECB is maintaining interest rates in an attempt to reduce Eurozone inflation. This will hurt in the short term, but in the long term, it will prove to be a far wiser policy that the recklessness of the Fed.

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