Skip to main content

The possibilities of Ukraine

Ukraine seems to acquire notice only as a place of shifting and unstable politics these days.

The euphoria of the Orange revolution seems to have given way to a war of attrition between the different Ukrainian political blocs. Many are dispirited by this constant bickering and the political merry-go-round in K'yiv. However it seems to me that the situation in Ukraine is drastically better than in neighbouring Russia, despite the negative parallels that some have wished to draw.

Firstly the political problems reflect the fact that Ukraine has a political system. The various regional and economic interests in the country are balanced against each other, and therefore no single group can enforce its will alone- a sharp contrast to the dogmatic authoritarianism in Moscow. Secondly the inability of the centre to impose its sill is a distinct advantage in a country which contains significant diversity. The Eastern, more Russian speaking part of the country does not fear the possibility of compulsory Ukrainian that the more Ukrainian nationalist areas of the West might have forced upon them. Ironically enough this has made the use of Ukrainian more widespread than it might have been- even formerly wholly Russian speaking cities, like Karkhiv, now use more Ukrainian, while K'yiv is now a majority Ukrainian speaking city. Perhaps more importantly, there is far more economic diversity than in dirigiste Russia. Investment is beginning to grow strongly, and major international manufacturing concerns are set to come to the major Ukrainian cities.

Despite the attempt of Putin to drag Ukraine back into the Russian orbit, the lure of the West is stronger- and even the most pro-Russian forces accept that more Western integration for their country is necessary, and indeed desirable. The European Union has shut the door for the moment, but it is clear that Ukraine would like to return to the European orbit (after all the great Prince of Kievian Rus, the Ukrainian proto-State, was Yaroslav the Wise, a direct ancestor of many European Royal Houses, including that of Elizabeth II). While NATO too does not seem willing to expand further, there are voices both inside and outside K'yiv which do not exclude that possibility. In the meantime, the relationship with the EU is expanding, and will grow further following Ukrainian accession to the WTO in the next year or so.

The Ukrainian economy has been growing strongly over the past few years as agriculture and the production of such intermediate goods as raw steel recovers from the maladministration and incompetence of the Soviet era. The steady hand of the Ukrainian central bank has also avoided the volatility and instability of the Bank of Russia's currency management over much of the period since independence. Now, the key will be the opening up of the Ukrainian market and avoiding the temptation of corrupt and questionable economic regulation.

However the news this week that Ukraine, together with Poland, has been made joint host of the Euro-2012 Football championship was something of a Christmas present for the Ukrainians- indeed it is hard to think of anything that would have pleased Ukraine more than being able to see this championship at home. Investment plans are now being dusted off to improve the host cities and also the coast in order to keep the thousands of fans long enough to actually make money from them.

And Vladimir Putin knows that it will help to make Ukraine a far more European place.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Cicero see you on the BBC thread. In the East not all good you know. There are some worrying things going on in the Blackhole that is Transdniestra. BTW Nothing on Yeltsin, surely for that momentr in 1991 the world can forgive him everything else, as Edward Lucas says. Gaidar had interesting things to say on his views of Russia after he was retirement.

Lepidus

Popular posts from this blog

Concert and Blues

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop...

One Year On

  Head vabariigi iseseisvuspäeva! Happy Estonian Independence Day! It is one year since I stood outside the Estonian Parliament for the traditional raising of the national flag from Tall Hermann tower. Looking at the young fraternities gathered with their flags, I was very sure that Estonia too would soon be facing the aggression of the criminal Russian regime. A tragic and dark day. 5 eyes intelligence had been clear: an all out invasion was going to happen, and Putin´s goals included- and still include- "restoration" of Russian imperial power across Europe, even to the Atlantic. Yet there was one Western intelligence failure: we all underestimated the guts of the Ukrainian armed forces, the ZSU, and its President and people. One year on, Estonia, and indeed all the front line states against Russia, knows that Ukraine saved us. Estonia used that time to prepare itself, should that "delayed" onslaught ever be unleashed, but equally the determination of Kaja Kallas, ...

A Hard Frost

  After a week of slush and damp, tonight there is a hard frost in Tallinn. The general election campaign has started with the parties submitting their lists of candidates and announcing their programs. The polls seem to show a polarization of views. Although the Liberal Reform party of PM Kaja Kallas is set to remain as the largest party in the 101 seat Riigikogu, the steady rise of the far right EKRE seems to place them firmly in second place, replacing the Social Liberal Centre Party, who seem set to lose several seats. In addition to the Conservative Isamaaliit and the Social Democrat SDE, there is a fair likelihood that a new party will join these in Parliament, namely the Business/Green minded Eesti 200. The Greens and the Libertarian "Right wingers" look like they will struggle to gain seats. A Moderate Reform/SDE/E200 coalition would be a good outcome, but the numbers will have to fall just so, otherwise there remains the chance of another Centre/Isamaa/EKRE coalition...