Skip to main content

By the River of Death

"What is the name of this place,
I asked him.
Valerik, he answered me.
And translated into your language,
That would be... River of Death."

Lermontov

In a short while Vladimir Putin will make his state of the nation speech in the St. George's Hall of the Kremlin.

Perhaps in the chandeliered magnificence of this room, the Russian President may feel safe. He may make a rousing and grandiloquent speech making the case for Russian greatness. Perhaps he might offer an olive branch to the West that he has spent the past year excoriating, more likely he will add to the litany of grievance and envy he clearly feels.

Perhaps in the end it might not matter.

A few hours ago Chechen militants launched an attack against local police in Grozny. This is the second attack in a couple of months, but it comes at a very significant time for the situation in Chechnya.

Several of the most prominent figures in the ISIS rebellion in Iraq/Syria are of Chechen origin. There are swirling rumours about flights from Russia that came to Arbil with several of these fighters on board- the implication being that they came with the tacit blessing either of the Kadyrov faction in Grozny or even with the approval of Moscow. Certainly the seizure of the Bank of Iraq reserves from Mosul, which has largely financed the ISIS movement, was a very professional job.

The Putin government regularly expresses a sense that whatever the United States may do, or be rumoured to do, then Russia has the right to match. Thus when Kremlin supporting websites suggest that the US supported the Chechens in order to destabilise Russia, then Russia has the right to destabilise, for example, Iraq, in order to upset Western interests. The fact that they may loudly deny this, should leave one counting the spoons, given the topsy-turvy nature of current Russian propaganda.

Certainly there are wide rumours about what ISIS truly is, and who may be covertly backing them. One thing is not in doubt, Chechens are heavily involved. As ISIS comes under pressure from the US, and even from Iran, some pretty far-fetched alliances are clearly already in place.

Any blowback from the ISIS war would place Ramzan Kadyrov in a very dangerous position, and severely raise the temperature in the North Caucasus. 

Yet another headache for Putin to contemplate from his gilded podium in the Kremlin. 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting for the Barbarians

What are we waiting for, assembled in the forum? The barbarians are due here today. Why isn’t anything going on in the senate? Why are the senators sitting there without legislating? Because the barbarians are coming today. What’s the point of senators making laws now? Once the barbarians are here, they’ll do the legislating. Why did our emperor get up so early, and why is he sitting enthroned at the city’s main gate, in state, wearing the crown? Because the barbarians are coming today and the emperor’s waiting to receive their leader. He’s even got a scroll to give him, loaded with titles, with imposing names. Why have our two consuls and praetors come out today wearing their embroidered, their scarlet togas? Why have they put on bracelets with so many amethysts, rings sparkling with magnificent emeralds? Why are they carrying elegant canes beautifully worked in silver and gold? Because the barbarians are coming today and things like that dazzle the barbarians. Why don’t our distingui...

Liberal Democrats v Conservatives: the battle in the blogosphere

It is probably fair to say that the advent of Nick Clegg, the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, has not been greeted with unalloyed joy by our Conservative opponents. Indeed, it would hardly be wrong to say that the past few weeks has seen some "pretty robust" debate between Conservative and Liberal Democrat bloggers. Even the Queen Mum of blogging, the generally genial Iain Dale seems to have been featuring as many stories as he can to try to show Liberal Democrats in as poor a light as possible. Neither, to be fair, has the traffic been all one way: I have "fisked' Mr. Cameron's rather half-baked proposals on health, and attacked several of the Conservative positions that have emerged from the fog of their policy making process. Most Liberal Democrats have attacked the Conservatives probably with more vigour even than the distrusted, discredited Labour government. So what lies behind this sharper debate, this emerging war in the blogosphere? Partly- in my ...

Lib Dem v. Tory (Round 2)

The Liberal Democrats stand for a distinct political ideology. It is an ideology built around both socially and economically liberal precepts. In as far as our ruling Labour government can be said to have an ideology at all, it coincides with Liberalism only incidentally. Labour stands for pragmatism, and where it does not there is still a core of values that are collectivist and not individual. Sometimes people are prepared to claim the moral high ground for policies of social solidarity and redistribution of wealth. Liberals may argue in favour of equality of opportunity, we can not argue in favour- as Socialists do- of "and equal society". The reason is simple: Socialism does not work. If one places equality above freedom, then eventually we get tyranny. This is why, while we may argue in favour of a more equal society as being a stronger society, the tools that we may use to gain -in our view- socially desirable outcomes must rest upon freedom above all else. As PJ O'...