Skip to main content

Could France vote for Marine Le Pen?

France remains one of the cornerstones of the European Union. A founding member of the organisation, it has been French philosophy that has shaped the ideology of the bloc and French systems and vocabulary of administration- "conseil", "stage"- that dictate the implementation of policy. The EU, primarily conceived as a way of eroding the hostility of enemies, in practice has become a way for France to project its power and influence over the whole bloc.


The latest alliance- of President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor, Angela Merkel at first sight looks like only the latest in a long series of Paris-Berlin (or Bonn) arrangements that have come to constitute the "Franco-German motor" of the EU.


Yet the signs are there, for all who can read them, that all is not well.


The attempts to rationalise and reform the European Union that have been underway for over a decade culminated in the EU Constitution: a document primarily crafted be a former French President- Valery Giscard d'Estaing- and full of the phraseology that L'Academie Francaise could approve- or even understand. Yet as we know, the French rejected the document in a decisive referendum. Although another founding member- the Netherlands- also rejected the document a few days later, it was the French rejection that was fatal to the project.


Yet France has long possessed significant anti-federalist, even Euro sceptic, political forces. These have tended to group into the anti-capitalist parties of the extreme left and the ultra-Gaullist believers in the French nation state who shade into the Pujardist and ultra nationalist Front National. As the left continues its slow decay, it has become the Front National that has been the primary standard bearer of Euro Scepticism, based upon a certain idea of French identity and nationalism.


Yet the leadership of the Front National, under the ex-soldier, Jean Marie Le Pen has not made the political breakthrough that they hoped. In 2002, despite the strong hostility of the media, Le Pen was able to knock out the Socialist candidate for President, Lionel Jospin and enter the run-off against the incumbent President Jacques Chirac. - yet Le Pen was crushed in the second round as voters decided that even the compromised and corrupt Chirac was a better choice that the bluntly racist Le Pen. Alarmed by the rise of the Front National, the politicians of the Gaullist right adopted several key policies of the FN, and for a while the threat seems to have receded- certainly the FN did not perform well in the 2011 regional elections.


Yet in recent weeks, the opinion polls are showing an increasing momentum behind Le Pen's youngest daughter, Marine, in her campaign for the Presidency in 2012. At the moment the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande is ahead, even though he is usually described as a lacklustre or wooden figure, often outshone by his glamorous former partner, Segolene Royal.


Nicolas Sarkozy has proven himself to be a tough fighter- but he remains unpopular and is struggling in the polls- as Marine Le Pen continues to close the gap. The point is that Marine Le Pen does not have the blunt-to-the-point-of-brutal manner of her father. She is riding the wave of the the unpopularity of the Euro and the wider European Union project. 


At the moment the conventional wisdom is that Hollande and Sarkozy will face each other in the run-off. However, if Sarkozy were to lose to Le Pen in the first round, then the second round could be a rather different affair than in 2002. Chirac was able to appeal across the political spectrum- yet Hollande is too much a man of the left to be able to do that- at best, Marine Le Pen would score a higher result than her father did a decade ago.


What about at worst?


Though the chances may be small, I do not think we can rule out entirely a Le Pen victory. The concerns of Euro sceptics have only grown over the past five years- and I for one have heard forthright support for Le Pen from very surprising quarters. Of course such a result would be a political earthquake- but as the No vote in 2005 showed, the French are not afraid of political earthquakes- indeed they seem to enjoy rocking the establishment boat.


It may be a small chance today- but Le Pen has momentum and the French voters are in an angry mood- so even such a radical an idea as victory for Marine Le Pen can not be entirely dismissed.      

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Concert and Blues

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop

Media misdirection

In the small print of the UK budget we find that the Chancellor of the Exchequer (the British Finance Minister) has allocated a further 15 billion Pounds to the funding for the UK track and trace system. This means that the cost of the UK´s track and trace system is now 37 billion Pounds.  That is approximately €43 billion or US$51 billion, which is to say that it is amount of money greater than the national GDP of over 110 countries, or if you prefer, it is roughly the same number as the combined GDP of the 34 smallest economies of the planet.  As at December 2020, 70% of the contracts for the track and trace system were awarded by the Conservative government without a competitive tender being made . The program is overseen by Dido Harding , who is not only a Conservative Life Peer, but the wife of a Conservative MP, John Penrose, and a contemporary of David Cameron and Boris Johnson at Oxford. Many of these untendered contracts have been given to companies that seem to have no notewo

Bournemouth absence

Although I had hoped to get down to the Liberal Democrat conference in Bournemouth this year, simple pressure of work has now made that impossible. I must admit to great disappointment. The last conference before the General Election was always likely to show a few fireworks, and indeed the conference has attracted more headlines than any other over the past three years. Some of these headlines show a significant change of course in terms of economic policy. Scepticism about the size of government expenditure has given way to concern and now it is clear that reducing government expenditure will need to be the most urgent priority of the next government. So far it has been the Liberal Democrats that have made the running, and although the Conservatives are now belatedly recognising that cuts will be required they continue to fail to provide even the slightest detail as to what they think should guide their decisions in this area. This political cowardice means that we are expected to ch