Another critical week

As Monday looms ahead, there is now the real probability that Greece could default this week.

No one knows what happens in that event: the policy makers and many market practitioners now think they can cope- but the reality is that no one knows.

I think we are about to find out whether Mrs. Merkel's policy of masterly inactivity will actually work.

I don't think it has, and I suspect that the impending Greek default could well lead to the failure of Hungary and Bulgaria.

This feels like the calm before the storm.

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