As Monday looms ahead, there is now the real probability that Greece could default this week.
No one knows what happens in that event: the policy makers and many market practitioners now think they can cope- but the reality is that no one knows.
I think we are about to find out whether Mrs. Merkel's policy of masterly inactivity will actually work.
I don't think it has, and I suspect that the impending Greek default could well lead to the failure of Hungary and Bulgaria.
This feels like the calm before the storm.