Skip to main content

Latvia raises its voice and takes a decision

It is not often that a country has the constitutional right to dissolve a Parliament by referendum. It is even rarer that this right is exercised. Thus the decision by the Latvian voters,to dissolve the Latvian Seima, and by a fairly substantial margin is a fairly unique set of circumstances..

But then again Latvia is a fairly unique country.

Latvia came under intense pressure as the Great Recession began- its largest domestic bank went under, and the government budget fell out of control. The result was not chaos but determination. The technocratic government of Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis slashed the budget, rescued the bank with the assistance of the IMF, and set about getting Latvia's economy in order. The result was a recovery nearly as rapid as the initial collapse: a classic V shaped recession.

More impressively still, the Prime Minister was able to be re-elected. Unfortunately that government was forced to rely on a disparate party: the "Greens and Farmers" which was in fact a vehicle for oligarchs, that is to say a group of Latvian businessmen who acquired great wealth in questionable ways and who had, before the recession, become dominant political figures.

In the midst of all this was the then President, Valdis Zatlers, who was widely derided as a light weight figure.

He is not derided now. His last act as President was to initiate the recall referendum. It was an all or nothing gamble, with the target of making a point against corruption in Parliament. It has succeeded perhaps even beyond the expectations of its initiator.

Latvia now faces a new election, but the leading political force is now set to be the Reform Party, founded by President Zatlers only in the past month. In combination with the Prime Minister's own Unity Party, this would be a powerful force to clean up Latvian politics (and indeed its business) and bring Latvia to the same "new Nordic" status now enjoyed by neighbouring Estonia.

There are many difficulties to be overcome, but no one can deny that the Latvian people have spoken up against the political class that has taken the voters for granted and corruptly shared the loot. It was indeed a huge gamble, but with such a big win, perhaps Valdis Zatlers can now do what his predecessors could not and work to create a fair and open politics that works for all of Latvia, not just those with the deepest pockets.

Comments

Anonymous said…
"The result was a recovery nearly as rapid as the initial collapse: a classic V shaped recession."

What are the actual growth figures? Having googled for 2 mins it seems that Latvia's gdp contracted by bonkers amounts in 08/09. Didn't manage to grow at all last year and is forecast to grow by about 3% this year. Hardly a rapid recovery...
Cicero said…
http://www.economist.com/node/18959241

In fact, as you see, quite a respectable recovery, especially under the circs.
Anonymous said…
Hardly, gdp growth for Q1 was weaker than the UK and unemployment is over 16%. I wonder what it is like living on the dole in Latvia.

Popular posts from this blog

Concert and Blues

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop

Media misdirection

In the small print of the UK budget we find that the Chancellor of the Exchequer (the British Finance Minister) has allocated a further 15 billion Pounds to the funding for the UK track and trace system. This means that the cost of the UK´s track and trace system is now 37 billion Pounds.  That is approximately €43 billion or US$51 billion, which is to say that it is amount of money greater than the national GDP of over 110 countries, or if you prefer, it is roughly the same number as the combined GDP of the 34 smallest economies of the planet.  As at December 2020, 70% of the contracts for the track and trace system were awarded by the Conservative government without a competitive tender being made . The program is overseen by Dido Harding , who is not only a Conservative Life Peer, but the wife of a Conservative MP, John Penrose, and a contemporary of David Cameron and Boris Johnson at Oxford. Many of these untendered contracts have been given to companies that seem to have no notewo

Bournemouth absence

Although I had hoped to get down to the Liberal Democrat conference in Bournemouth this year, simple pressure of work has now made that impossible. I must admit to great disappointment. The last conference before the General Election was always likely to show a few fireworks, and indeed the conference has attracted more headlines than any other over the past three years. Some of these headlines show a significant change of course in terms of economic policy. Scepticism about the size of government expenditure has given way to concern and now it is clear that reducing government expenditure will need to be the most urgent priority of the next government. So far it has been the Liberal Democrats that have made the running, and although the Conservatives are now belatedly recognising that cuts will be required they continue to fail to provide even the slightest detail as to what they think should guide their decisions in this area. This political cowardice means that we are expected to ch