Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The $*%& hits the fan

Today has been extremely bloody in the markets.

In short the collapse in confidence is pushing the Euro towards meltdown. Either a de facto central Treasury is established in the Eurozone or there will be a series of Sovereign defaults, starting with Ireland, but including Greece, Portugal, Spain, and probably Belgium and Italy as well.

If the German constitutional court vetoes German participation in the Treasury, then the Euro will implode and the currency will fail with drastic but at this point unknowable consequences.

The spreading of contagion into the corporate credit market is now pulling emergency measures ever closer.

Estonia is scheduled to join the Euro on January 1st. After today I would say that there is only not much more than about a 60/40 chance that the currency will survive that long, and no more than evens that it survives the first quarter of 2011.

It is that serious.

1 comment:

Zoroaster said...

Eh. No, if the Euro fails, it'll be in several years, not several months.