Skip to main content

Germany moves Liberal

The grand coalition in Berlin was an expedient response to the electoral maths which the German voters delivered to their politicians. It allowed orderly administration but did not allow either party to change the political weather, given the closeness of the election result, one might well say fair enough to that.

However the grand coalition has also limited much of the freedom of action of the administration. The controversial Nordstream gas pipeline project continues, despite serious concerns about security, largely because the former SPD Chancellor, Gerhard Schroder, has carved himself a role as the Kremlin's international emissary- which the current Chancellor, Angela Merkel is known to have concerns about, though she has felt unable to say so in public.

Although the government has been able to put together a credible set of core policies to face the credit collapse, and is still held in generally high regard, the more dramatic policy prescriptions have not been adopted, simply because they can not be.

However in September 2009, a new general election is scheduled and it is quite clear that the political weather in Germany is changing dramatically. The defeat of the SPD in the state of Hesse has been accompanied by a dramatic rise in support for the Liberal FDP, who have doubled their vote. It seems likely that the grand coalition will lose their control of the upper house of the German Parliament- the Bundesrat- because the SPD result was as bad as it was.

All the evidence suggests that the FDP are headed for an exceptionally strong result in September and will be able to join a new administration under the current CDU Chancellor, but without the Social Democrats. As a Liberal who admires much of the FDP, I am pleased to see such a prospect, but I am also pleased that the SPD will finally be punished for their naked and unprincipled ambition.

At a time when the European Union faces deep challenges, the presence of the economically literate Free Democrats at the heart of government in Berlin can only help to steady the ship.

Meanwhile the increasingly shrill commentary coming from the likes of Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph is matched by a much more sober, though sombre analysis from Wolfgang Munchau in the FT . In the end, the bile of the anti-Europeans may end up "all passion spent", as it becomes clear that even the massive devaluation of Sterling that has already taken place has not solved the problems facing the British economy- far from it. Despite the increasingly hysterical assertions that the demonstrations in Riga and Vilnius are "in fact" against Europe, rather than the slow formation of policy in Vilnius and widespread disgust at the corruption of the power elite in Latvia, virtually everybody recognises that the European Union will have a critical role in working out the crisis.

After even in the UK, the appointment of Ken Clarke to the Conservative front bench shows that whatever his public words, the leader of the most avowedly Eurosceptic mainstream political party in Europe accepts the reality that the EU is not going to fall apart and indeed may emerge stronger from this crisis than it was before.

With the intelligent voice of the FDP seemingly set to be heard much more widely in Germany, that is quite possibly a welcome state of affairs.

Comments

Anonymous said…
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Popular posts from this blog

Concert and Blues

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop...

One Year On

  Head vabariigi iseseisvuspäeva! Happy Estonian Independence Day! It is one year since I stood outside the Estonian Parliament for the traditional raising of the national flag from Tall Hermann tower. Looking at the young fraternities gathered with their flags, I was very sure that Estonia too would soon be facing the aggression of the criminal Russian regime. A tragic and dark day. 5 eyes intelligence had been clear: an all out invasion was going to happen, and Putin´s goals included- and still include- "restoration" of Russian imperial power across Europe, even to the Atlantic. Yet there was one Western intelligence failure: we all underestimated the guts of the Ukrainian armed forces, the ZSU, and its President and people. One year on, Estonia, and indeed all the front line states against Russia, knows that Ukraine saved us. Estonia used that time to prepare itself, should that "delayed" onslaught ever be unleashed, but equally the determination of Kaja Kallas, ...

A Hard Frost

  After a week of slush and damp, tonight there is a hard frost in Tallinn. The general election campaign has started with the parties submitting their lists of candidates and announcing their programs. The polls seem to show a polarization of views. Although the Liberal Reform party of PM Kaja Kallas is set to remain as the largest party in the 101 seat Riigikogu, the steady rise of the far right EKRE seems to place them firmly in second place, replacing the Social Liberal Centre Party, who seem set to lose several seats. In addition to the Conservative Isamaaliit and the Social Democrat SDE, there is a fair likelihood that a new party will join these in Parliament, namely the Business/Green minded Eesti 200. The Greens and the Libertarian "Right wingers" look like they will struggle to gain seats. A Moderate Reform/SDE/E200 coalition would be a good outcome, but the numbers will have to fall just so, otherwise there remains the chance of another Centre/Isamaa/EKRE coalition...