Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Breaking the Mould

The tectonic plates- as John Prescott once had it- are shifting.

The instability on the global credit markets is undermining people's sense of confidence and as the avilability and terms of mortgages- if not the actual interest rates- grow more onerous, the era of cheap money, at least as far as the UK housing market is concerned, seems to have finally ended.

So what now?

Well, no one really knows, though i notice that the political climate is changing in the UK.

The opinion polls are showing a more entrenched lead for the Conservatives. Interestingly, for the first time for several years, The Liberal Democrats have come above 21%. In the historic scheme of things, the Liberal Democrats have tended to sit around the high teens, and then gain a little further during a general election campaign.

This changed in the last parliament, where the support for the Liberal Democrats firmed up strongly, as the result of a recognition that the party had taken a principled stand against the war in Iraq, but faded a little closer to the election in 2005.

The difference this time, seems to be that Labour are without the communication skills of Tony Blair. I don't know if things can get worse for Gordon Brown, but I am beginning to feel that things could certainly get better for the Liberal Democrats. Perhaps it is even possible that the party, far from losing seats at the next election, might even make an overall gain.

That, from this Liberal perspective, really would be a tectonic shift.

No comments: