After a week of slush and damp, tonight there is a hard frost in Tallinn.
The general election campaign has started with the parties submitting their lists of candidates and announcing their programs. The polls seem to show a polarization of views. Although the Liberal Reform party of PM Kaja Kallas is set to remain as the largest party in the 101 seat Riigikogu, the steady rise of the far right EKRE seems to place them firmly in second place, replacing the Social Liberal Centre Party, who seem set to lose several seats. In addition to the Conservative Isamaaliit and the Social Democrat SDE, there is a fair likelihood that a new party will join these in Parliament, namely the Business/Green minded Eesti 200. The Greens and the Libertarian "Right wingers" look like they will struggle to gain seats. A Moderate Reform/SDE/E200 coalition would be a good outcome, but the numbers will have to fall just so, otherwise there remains the chance of another Centre/Isamaa/EKRE coalition, which is unlikely to be either stable or effective. There remain suspicions about EKRE, as there are about any far right group in the EU.
The backdrop to the election is increasingly grim. There is a real sense of shock and anger that Germany has blocked any Leopards going to Ukraine, at a time when Estonia is donating over 1% of its entire GDP to Ukraine. Although the Baltic Assembly was diplomatic in expressing its disappointment, the truth is that the Balts feel increasingly exposed and deeply concerned about the prospects for a Russian counter attack.
The stunningly callous way that Russia has been murdering its own soldiers is not a surprise, but the revised CIA assessment of Russian casualties:of over 188,000 of which nearly 120,000 are dead, remains shocking. Unfortunately the meat grinder is also hitting Ukraine, and several thousand Ukrainian troops were killed in the last week as Russia consolidated its hold around Bakhmut. The need for military assistance to Ukraine is becoming an emergency, and German delays will be publicly condemned in very strong terms from here and elsewhere, if Leopards are not on the move soon.
In contrast British assistance in Estonia- Chinooks and more equipment, mostly, has arrived at the bases in Tapa and Amari and the cooperation between the UK and Estonia is increasing all the time.
Medvedev emerging from his Vodka bottle with more blood curdling nuclear threats can be discounted for the time being, but the longer this war continues, the more likely the use of nuclear weapons becomes. The depraved murderers in the Kremlin will stop at nothing, and they must be stopped. There is a growing sense that Germany may betray the Eastern flank, and that Russia has extended its subversive activities across the West.
A hard frost indeed as we wait out the dark winter days.
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