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Britterdämmerung

 The growing problem for the Conservatives now is that, while a no deal is likely to cause a pretty sharp economic contraction, even a "deal" cannot now avoid most of the same problems. The core of the cabinet has no business experience and their critical failure to understand that UK PLC needs time to plan and respond in order to avoid disruption is now leading the country to a major crisis. The infrastructure of customs and immigration simply does not exist and the utter incompetence of the Home Office starts with the useless and unpleasant Ms. Patel herself. I could go down the cabinet, but everyone, even Tory loyalists know: Johnson is NBG and most of the cabinet are worse.


"Even the best of political leaders would struggle in the current crisis" is the get out clause the Tories are giving themselves, but in the country at large public opinion seems increasingly to believe that the Tories have caused the Brexit part of the crisis themselves and their handling of the Covid part of the crisis is a shambles. Then there is the growing whiff of corruption.

There are now two more crises barreling down the track: the economic fall-out, which will see a major cull of small and medium sized businesses and a major pick up in unemployment. Sunak´s policies are a not especially good band-aid on the severing of a major artery. The emerging battle for the Tory leadership will ensure at least a six month delay before the Treasury can focus, and it is already too late now. The Scottish Parliament elections in May might also add to the growing sense of Britterdämmerung, although just possibly these may be delayed to October for Covid reasons. By that time the SNP civil war may finally impact their support, but unless such a delay occurs the Brexit, Covid and economic crisis will be joined by an existential threat to the UK itself.

No one could say that this was a good record. Although slower, this government is already in its 1992 Black Wednesday meltdown and the 1997 style defeat seems a growing prospect, or quite possibly a major realignment on the scale of 1922.

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