Monday, March 01, 2010

Taking a Pounding

I have been writing for some time about the threat to the stability of Sterling from uncertainty and from the intellectual holes at the heart of the policies of both Labour and the Conservatives.

While I spent much of the day in various aeroplanes, the currency markets did indeed take a sharp kick against the Pound.

This is partly a reaction to the growing uncertainty about the election result. It is also a reaction to the glaring intellectual holes at the heart of the policies of both Labour and the Conservatives. The Markets are deeply unhappy with the two different voices emerging amongst the Conservatives, with neither demonstrating a real understanding of the current economic situation. Now that UK government debt is trading at spreads which already imply that the country has lost its AAA, it is not a surprise to see the currency growing weaker. I expect there will be some volatility this week, while the market wrestles with the real level of risk, however there is little chance that the currency will make a sustained recovery from these levels until at least the general election, and it may lurch south rather dramatically. I discount it to a degree, but there is a growing risk that a full blown Sterling emergency could be just around the corner.

My profound concerns about the state of the country are tempered with a frisson of cold satisfaction, since I had already put my money where my mouth is, swapping half my cash wealth into US$ and €.

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