Skip to main content

Its the Economy...stupid

Now the air truly is dark with chickens coming home to roost for Gordon Brown.

It is now clear that the Governor of the Bank of England is going to be writing a lot of letters explaining how he has missed the inflation target. The newspapers are full of columns on the coming economic disaster. The dreaded "R word" - recession- is now being coupled with inflation and comparisons are being drawn with the stagflation decade of the 1970s.

Thus, the fact that many comparisons are being made between Gordon Brown today and the Major government after 1995, is even worse for Gordon Brown than it appears- Major, after all was presiding over a substantial improvement in the economy, ironically enough largely caused by the collapse of the long term Conservative strategy of targeting a stable currency rate for Sterling against the D-Mark, rather than targeting inflation directly.

Inflation targeting is now facing its first serious test- a challenge for the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King- but equally a test of the commitment of the government to maintain the independence of the Central Bank. There will be growing temptation to intervene.

However, such temptation rests on the fact that Gordan Brown promised "an end to boom and bust". What he really meant was and end to bust, of course, since no government would try to end a boom, unless they were prepared to commit political suicide. Unfortunately for Mr. Brown, the bust seems to be well underway, and there is now precious little he can do about it.

If division was poisonous for John Major's Conservatives in bad times, how much worse will the fall of Labour be, in the face of the first downturn in a decade and a half, and a downturn that could well turn out to be severe and prolonged?

In six months all of Mr. Brown's hopes have turned to ash- yet the voters remain fickle. The Conservatives may be growing in confidence, but there is precious little trust on offer from a cynical and fearful electorate. The re-emergence of the hunting ban as a political football- the sub-text being, of course that David Cameron and his cronies are pro-hunting toffs- is a rather crude attempt by the Labour spin machine to fight back.

However- as the economic gloom continues to grow, Gordon Brown seems set to be hoisted by his own petard- the economy, of which he has been the steward throughout the Labour government, will be what he is judged on- and the electorate seems set to convict.

Comments

Newmania said…
Now I quite like that post.

Popular posts from this blog

Post Truth and Justice

The past decade has seen the rise of so-called "post truth" politics.  Instead of mere misrepresentation of facts to serve an argument, political figures began to put forward arguments which denied easily provable facts, and then blustered and browbeat those who pointed out the lie.  The political class was able to get away with "post truth" positions because the infrastructure that reported their activity has been suborned directly into the process. In short, the media abandoned long-cherished traditions of objectivity and began a slow slide into undeclared bias and partisanship.  The "fourth estate" was always a key piece of how democratic societies worked, since the press, and later the broadcast media could shape opinion by the way they reported on the political process. As a result there has never been a golden age of objective media, but nevertheless individual reporters acquired better or worse reputations for the quality of their reporting and ...

The Will of the People

Many of the most criminal political minds of the past generations have claimed to be an expression of the "will of the people"... The will of the people, that is, as interpreted by themselves. Most authoritarian rulers: Napoleon III, Mussolini, Hitler, have called referendums in order to claim some spurious popular support for the actions they had already determined upon. The problem with the June 2016 European Union was that the question was actually insufficiently clear. To leave the EU was actually a vast set of choices, not one specific choice. Danial Hannan, once of faces of Vote Leave was quite clear that leaving the EU did NOT mean leaving the Single Market:    “There is a free trade zone stretching all the way from Iceland to the Russian border. We will still be part of it after we Vote Leave.” He declared: “Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market.” The problem was that this relatively moderate position was almost immediately ...

Liberal Democrats v Conservatives: the battle in the blogosphere

It is probably fair to say that the advent of Nick Clegg, the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, has not been greeted with unalloyed joy by our Conservative opponents. Indeed, it would hardly be wrong to say that the past few weeks has seen some "pretty robust" debate between Conservative and Liberal Democrat bloggers. Even the Queen Mum of blogging, the generally genial Iain Dale seems to have been featuring as many stories as he can to try to show Liberal Democrats in as poor a light as possible. Neither, to be fair, has the traffic been all one way: I have "fisked' Mr. Cameron's rather half-baked proposals on health, and attacked several of the Conservative positions that have emerged from the fog of their policy making process. Most Liberal Democrats have attacked the Conservatives probably with more vigour even than the distrusted, discredited Labour government. So what lies behind this sharper debate, this emerging war in the blogosphere? Partly- in my ...