Cicero's Songs

In the first decade of the twentieth century the relationship between the British and German Empires fell apart. Britain had tacitly supported the unification of Germany under Prussian leadership, to the point of sacrificing the Kingdom of Hanover in 1866. This friendly relationship reached its apogee with the short reign of Kaiser Friedrich III in 1888. Liberal, open minded and generally pro British, by virtue of his marriage to Queen Victoria's eldest daughter, Vicky, it seemed that Germany under the new Kaiser was poised to become a progressive ally of the British Empire that would spread democratic rule and liberal prosperity across Europe and the World. As we know, throat cancer put an end to Friedrich III after only a few months, and in the year of Three Emperors, Germany went from the military conservative rule of Wilhelm I to liberal Friedrich III to the unstable and expansionist Wilhelm II.  Within a matter of little more of a year the second new Kaiser turned German polit...

 In some ways, but far from all, I was a mildly precocious kid. For example I began to be a regular reader of The Economist from my early teens, long enough to see long term pictures and trends, but equally long enough to develop a brand loyalty.  From the beginning, I appreciated the conceit of the The Economist : that it was a newspaper, not a magazine, like the lesser titles based in America, such as Time or Newsweek , but more, that its editorial judgement was based on a set of principles that emerged from an almost high table approach to the issues of the day. Structured and academically rigorous, sure, but most of all intelligent.  The Economist was committed to political ideas, a liberal-conservative point of view that was not subject to the whims of fashion. More to the point, both editors and contributors were not merely ivory tower thinkers, they were often financial practitioners and extraordinarily well connected and well informed. Thus the opinions express...

 No one is quite sure which Frenchman in the 1920s suggested that "the United States is the only country that has gone from barbarism to decadence, with out the usual interval of civilization". It may have been a right wing French newspaper, it may have been Georges Clemenceau, though in any event it was treated as more a witty riposte to some US policy than a serious description of the then burgeoning power of the USA. The point was that the election of Warren Harding in 1920 had upended American foreign policy. Instead of joining the League of Nations- a body actually proposed by the Americans under Woodrow Wilson- the United States lapsed into a distant neutrality. The US "return to normalcy", left European, indeed global security without the worlds largest economy, without the pre-eminent power of the US armed forces, so recently the source of the allied victory in the First World War.  With the hindsight of a century, the early 1920s have some significant paral...

Tallinn is full tonight... Big concerts on at the Song field The Weeknd and Bonnie Tyler (!). The place is buzzing and some sixty thousand concert goers have booked every bed for thirty miles around Tallinn. It should be a busy high summer, but it isn´t. Tourism is down sharply overall. Only 70 cruise ships calling this season, versus over 300 before Ukraine. Since no one goes to St Pete, demand has fallen, and of course people think that Estonia is not safe. We are tired. The economy is still under big pressure, and the fall of tourism is a significant part of that. The credit rating for Estonia has been downgraded as the government struggles with spending. The summer has been a little gloomy, and soon the long and slow autumn will drift into the dark of the year. Yesterday I met with more refugees: the usual horrible stories, the usual tears. I try to make myself immune, but I can´t. These people are wounded in spirit, carrying their grief in a terrible cradling. I try to project hop...

  Head vabariigi iseseisvuspäeva! Happy Estonian Independence Day! It is one year since I stood outside the Estonian Parliament for the traditional raising of the national flag from Tall Hermann tower. Looking at the young fraternities gathered with their flags, I was very sure that Estonia too would soon be facing the aggression of the criminal Russian regime. A tragic and dark day. 5 eyes intelligence had been clear: an all out invasion was going to happen, and Putin´s goals included- and still include- "restoration" of Russian imperial power across Europe, even to the Atlantic. Yet there was one Western intelligence failure: we all underestimated the guts of the Ukrainian armed forces, the ZSU, and its President and people. One year on, Estonia, and indeed all the front line states against Russia, knows that Ukraine saved us. Estonia used that time to prepare itself, should that "delayed" onslaught ever be unleashed, but equally the determination of Kaja Kallas, ...

  After a week of slush and damp, tonight there is a hard frost in Tallinn. The general election campaign has started with the parties submitting their lists of candidates and announcing their programs. The polls seem to show a polarization of views. Although the Liberal Reform party of PM Kaja Kallas is set to remain as the largest party in the 101 seat Riigikogu, the steady rise of the far right EKRE seems to place them firmly in second place, replacing the Social Liberal Centre Party, who seem set to lose several seats. In addition to the Conservative Isamaaliit and the Social Democrat SDE, there is a fair likelihood that a new party will join these in Parliament, namely the Business/Green minded Eesti 200. The Greens and the Libertarian "Right wingers" look like they will struggle to gain seats. A Moderate Reform/SDE/E200 coalition would be a good outcome, but the numbers will have to fall just so, otherwise there remains the chance of another Centre/Isamaa/EKRE coalition...