Despite the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his wife, together with killing or wounding several senior members of the Iranian government on February 28th, Trump's war of choice against Iran appears to be facing significant problems.
Firstly, the authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran have not dissolved into chaos. They have moved quickly to install Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Hosseini, as the new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Kahmenei is said to be very close the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and especially its paramilitary wing, the Basij. These are the two institutions that have been the primary organs of repression and are certainly responsible for thousands, probably tens of thousands, of deaths since the recent unrest began. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who is rumoured to have been wounded in the attack that killed his parents, is therefore not a sign that the Islamic Republic is seeking to moderate its positions.
Sure enough the Iranian armed forces have launched furious attacks against its GCC neighbours and has sought to block the Straits of Hormuz. In the meantime Israel and the United States have continued their own attacks against Iran. Unlike the previous decapitation of the leadership of Venezuela, the attack on Iran has provoked an all-out conflict.
The Trump administration has walked into a trap.
This conflict has been started essentially without reference to America's allies, whether regional or NATO- indeed Trump has continued his stream of insults against NATO allies. Even as it became clear that allied resources would be required, Trump couldn't keep his mouth shut. Neither has the administration offered any incentives to their allies: even after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariff regime, he has sought to continue or even expand punitive tariffs against most other countries, making little difference between an ostensible competitor, like China or ostensible allies, like Britain. So, in both practical economics and propaganda, the strains in the Western alliance are getting far worse.
Trump has broken most rules, and even laws, with impunity. Whether in his personal corruption, which has been untrammeled and without equal in American history, in the illegal use of force against American citizens, which is a betrayal of his oath of office, or the issuing of rules by decree, regardless of the rights of the US Congress, Trump has got used to his political opponents failing to mount successful challenges against him. However, in his vainglorious and reckless attack on Iran, Trump is meeting an enemy that has nothing to lose- that in fact matches his own reckless disregard for law.
Trump has stamped on a hornets nest, and must now settle down for an extremely damaging and potentially long term war, where he lacks the military resources to defeat and occupy Iran and has also alienated his former allies to the point of rupture.
As gifted migrants no longer offer their skills to the USA. As the reputation of that country plummets every time the crass vulgar thug in the Oval office presumes to lecture other nations. As former allies no longer trust America enough to buy weapons from the United States (but are buying weapons that could be used against the United States). As American launches wars of choice in a reckless, ill prepared and feckless manner. All of this adds up to a United States that will see its power diminish and decline far faster than could have remotely seemed possible even one year ago.
I have little doubt the Americans in due course will issue a "Damnatio memoriae" for Trump and the crew of drunks, creeps and spooks that came in on his coat tails, not to mention his criminally corrupt family. Perhaps they may even place the survivors on trial. However unless that happens, unless the Americans recognize the scale of the crimes and incompetence of Donald Trump and seek redress, then the country will dwindle from hegemon to also ran.
History is littered with Empires that fell because of an ill judged choice of war. Trump has risked the same fate befalling the United States.
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