Cicero's Songs

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Russia after Putin

James Sherr, the former head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, is a very distinguished analyst who understands the condition of Russia better than almost all the commentators on that subject. Over the years I have learned that his views of Russia ring more and more true. One idea that I find particularly compelling is the idea that Russia is in many ways an unreformed absolutist state, more similar to the time of the early Stuarts in Britain than to any modern political system. Furthermore, far from modernizing Russia, the Soviet period set back Russian political reform to an even more primitive political era. The impact of this insight is to change the way that we analyse decision taking in Moscow. Rational expectations must be put aside in favour of a psychological or even slightly mystical analysis. Thus we examine Russia's unfolding disaster in Ukraine. There have been several Western analysts who have argued that the attempted seizure of Ukraine is a...

The failure of Donald Trump

Despite the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his wife, together with killing or wounding several senior members of the Iranian government on February 28th, Trump's war of choice against Iran appears to be facing significant problems. Firstly, the authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran have not dissolved into chaos. They have moved quickly to install Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Hosseini, as the new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Kahmenei is said to be very close the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and especially its paramilitary wing, the Basij. These are the two institutions that have been the primary organs of repression and are certainly responsible for thousands, probably tens of thousands, of deaths since the recent unrest began. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who is rumoured to have been wounded in the attack that killed his parents, is therefore not a sign that the Islamic Republic is seeking to moderate its positions. Sure enou...

The Resurrection of The West

The speech of the Canadian Prime Minister in Davos yesterday was electrifying. Instead of trying to ignore the disaster of the Trump Presidency, He confronted it head on. The truth is that there really is no going back, even though we would wish that the United States would maintain its commitment to freedom and justice, Trump is proof positive that this will not happen, and that therefore the rest of the world will need to adjust and rebuild mechanisms that, where necessary, will exclude America. The call to action that Mr. Carney sets out is one that all those committed to law and justice should sign up for.

America's Suez

In October 1956 Britain and France,with Israeli support, launched military strikes against Egypt. The military operation was entirely successful, and within a matter of days it appeared that all the operational objectives would be achieved. However, almost immediately, the United States put so much pressure on their allies that the operation became unsustainable. Nine days after the attack was launched the Eden government declared a ceasefire and within two months all of the British and French attacking forces were withdrawn, leaving Egypt the clear victor, Eden himself was forced from office in January 1957. The point was that even the formerly equal wartime allies were compelled to recognize the power reality- the hostility of the United States to the operation could not be overcome. From then onward the United Kingdom generally aligned its policies with the United States. It is tempting to consider that any American attempt to seize Greenland might be met with simil...

1989-2026

In 1989, the international norms that had held for decades. In the tumultuous autumn of 1989 the various governments of the Warsaw Pact fell in turn. "In Hungary it took six years, in Poland it took six months, In East Germany it took six weeks, in Czechoslovakia six days and in Romania it took six hours". Communism had collapsed under its own contradictions. As we read the headlines in January 2026, it is hard not to feel certain 1989 vibes. The end of Maduro in Venezuela, and now the explosion of unrest in the "Islamic Republic" of Iran. It is not easy to understand what is going on across the cities of Iran at this point, but one thing is very clear: the regime of the Mullahs is being shaken to its very foundations. Tired of the casual brutality, corruption and incompetence of the clerical regime, the Iranian people are expressing a clear desire to end the broken system that has governed them for nearly fifty years. Meanwhile other authoritarian governments, in...

Maduro and the wrong conclusions

Today's problem is not Maduro. The illegitimate Venezuelan dictator is now out of the game. However, the legitimate government is not in the game either- at least not yet. An optimistic student of realpolitik might take the view that the Americans have learned from Iraq and are not making the mistake of destroying all the Chavista state, which they did with the Iraqi Baathist state after the fall of Saddam Hussein, before Venezuelan democracy can be restored. Since we regard the opposition as the legitimate authorities, and they have not complained about the arrest of Maduro, The US can legitimately say that their attack is not a breach of international law. Whether it is wise, and whether the US can take Venezuelan resources under their control are different questions, and are more bound up in the personality of Donald Trump. Smaller, weaker countries reach for the dubious comfort blanket of "international law" when they see their interests under threat, but in this c...