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1989-2026

 In 1989, the international norms that had held for decades. In the tumultuous autumn of 1989 the various governments of the Warsaw Pact fell in turn. "In Hungary it took six years, in Poland it took six months, In East Germany it took six weeks, in Czechoslovakia six days and in Romania it took six hours". Communism had collapsed under its own contradictions.

As we read the headlines in January 2026, it is hard not to feel certain 1989 vibes. The end of Maduro in Venezuela, and now the explosion of unrest in the "Islamic Republic" of Iran. It is not easy to understand what is going on across the cities of Iran at this point, but one thing is very clear: the regime of the Mullahs is being shaken to its very foundations.  Tired of the casual brutality, corruption and incompetence of the clerical regime, the Iranian people are expressing a clear desire to end the broken system that has governed them for nearly fifty years.

Meanwhile other authoritarian governments, including Russia and possibly even China, are facing new challenges. The terminal illness of Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechen Republic inside Russia is a potential source of instability for Putin, as the scale of the disaster that the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has unleashed becomes clearer every day.  Far from being feared, the clean overthrow of Maduro is a devastating contrast to the Russian quagmire in Ukraine. Russia demands respect, but it is cashing cheques it cannot honour, and the direction of travel is ever more negative for the brittle and unstable regime in Moscow. Blood curdling threats from drunks like former President Medvedev are shrill and dangerous, but increasingly desperate. Only the nuclear threat now differentiates modern Russia from the Iraq of Saddam Hussein- a military threat on paper, not in reality. A determined NATO will not face an existential threat from Russia for many years, if ever. 

Meanwhile the chaotic disruption of Donald Trump in Washington is facing a level of unpopularity that has never been seen before. Notwithstanding the decisive American intervention in Venezuela, the increasingly brutal ICE agents, by killing a totally innocent mother in Minneapolis are opening a can or worms that could lead to a catastrophic result for the Republicans at the mid terms. The door for the third impeachment for Donald Trump will then open wide.

Then there is China. the rumours of the power struggle at the top of the CCP have grown ever starker, and the government of China is facing significant pushback both internationally and at home. 1989-90, like 2025-6 is a year of the Snake in eastern horoscopes, and the implication is the shedding of a skin.  That is certainly what happened at the end of 1989.  For 2026, we will simply have to see,

Of course also in 1989 was the Tian An Mien square uprising and the subsequent crackdown.  Not all the stories of the year of liberation in Europe were happy ones, so as the new year begins we are town between hope... and fear.

The world is changing and we will see a wholly different set of political realities over the course of the next few months.  It is a new skin, but we still do not know if it will be a healthy or even more dangerous serpent that emerges from the upheaval.

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