Cicero's Songs

A lot of anger is directed towards those in the corporate world who earn large salaries. Sometimes, in my view, that anger is not truly justified: for example, when an entrepreneur takes out income based on their ownership of a company, I -for one- tend to see it as just reward for those who take a risk with their capital. However, listening to Martin Sorell on the Radio trying to justify his large remuneration , despite the objections of the shareholders in WPP was not an example of just reward.  The fact is that Martin Sorell does not own the company he founded and built any more- his ownership is less than 1% of the shares- which still represents £800 million- after several sales, not least following his divorce from his first wife in 2005. he may have founded it, and built it but now he no longer owns it. However, Sir Martin, is insisting on a substantial increase in his remuneration, to reflect, as he sees it the success of WPP over the past year. Yet, he does not seem t...

The rumbles about the BBC coverage of the Diamond Jubilee have continued, with the latest rumours suggesting that the poor coverage may even have a serious impact on who will be appointed as the next Director General of the BBC when Mark Thompson steps down shortly.  The essence of the complaints has been that the coverage was neither informative nor entertaining- which from the little I saw, seems justified. The "send for a Dimbleby " message that has summed up the complaints seems to me just to underline the scale of the problems, not just of the BBC but of the wider media. In the BBC, it could have been "send for a Snow " or send for a Beurk ", or indeed send for any one of half a dozen other families that have at least two members working for the Beeb.  The BBC, like virtually all the media, is a nest of nepotism. Indeed, without a public school education and family connections, it is exceptionally difficult to break into journalism of any kind. T...

Amidst all the Jubilee hullabaloo in the UK, the second- and ultimately more significant- story remains the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone and the continued instability in the markets. The signs of a slowdown in the Chinese and the American real economies have put further pressure on the Eurozone economies that are still struggling to return to growth.  The ongoing restructuring of the Spanish banking system has alerted the markets to the fact that their remains a significant capital requirement, even after the forced mergers of the Cajas . However, despite the more hysterical of the comments from UK commentators and politicians, the fact is that the Spanish economy does not have the same long term government problems as Greece does. The deficit issues are a function of the the banking system breakdown, not the series of policy mistakes that hampers Athens even beyond the banking crisis. As a result, although serious, there is far greater trust offered to Madrid- and that solidar...

Viewed from the perspective of the Euro's newest member state, the British political and media narrative still seems completely off the point with regard to the single currency. To reiterate: this is not a currency crisis, it is a debt crisis. The majority of the members of the Euro zone have controlled their deficits and are retrenching their debts. It is where deficits are not being controlled- in Greece and in the Latin bloc that the crisis has its centre. There are two sources of deficit pressure: one is fiscal incontinence, that is to say that the structure of debt is wrong or as the result of welfare or other general calls on the public purse government expenses are not being controlled versus government income. The second is the need to recapitalize the banking systems following a largely property inspired meltdown. The scale of the recapitalization is so large, because governments have undertaken not merely to compensate depositors, but all those, including bond holders...

More news from the sick world of the British media: Apparently Clegg is a "Communist", and Cable is a "Socialist" . Ha ha ha! Meanwhile, in other news:  The Daily Mail is a formerly fascist supporting right wing rag which is obsessed with cancer, house prices and the late Diana, Princess of Wales. It is mostly committed to gossipy stories about Z list celebs. News Value= 0  The Daily Telegraph editorial staff mostly consists of UKIP nutters, and various other sociophobes committed to an agenda far more right wing and out of date even than the modern Conservative party. It too is mostly committed to publishing stories it has stolen illegally and gossipy stories about C list celebs. News value =0 Being insulted by that lot should certainly reinforce Nick Clegg's and Vince Cable's self esteem, I would have thought. Only an real right wing extremist would think Liberals were Socialist, let alone Communist.  Even Jack Straw, who was one, does not like...

Living in the latest country to adopt the Euro, it is clear that, to say the least, the British media has a "different" perspective on the single currency. If you believe the British press, the Euro not only will collapse, but it should collapse. The propaganda spread by such "newspapers" as the Daily Mail and the Express, is unrelentingly hostile, not merely to the Euro, but even to continuing British membership of the European Union itself. Continuing campaigns against the Union, which is consistently portrayed in the most negative light possible, have undoubtedly contributed to a sharp decline in British popular support for the EU. The polls now show a majority backing British withdrawal from the European Union. However, the departure of the UK is not the same as the end of the European Union, or even the Euro itself. In Estonia, as in many other Eurozone countries, the idea of restoring national currencies is not merely not on the national agenda, it is ...

I believe Rebekah Brooks presided over a conspiracy to corrupt British politicians and undermine our democracy. That is not what she is being charged with. She has been charged simply with attempting to pervert the course of justice. She has only been charged essentially with the destruction of evidence. In my view she is probably guilty, but these are the lesser charges in any event. It seems to me that Brooks was a primary figure in Rupert Murdoch's blackmail and bribery of the British political class. She also, I believe, orchestrated the bribery and corruption of the Police and various other significant parts of the British establishment. She represented an organisation that is a malign and criminal influence. The Tories - as the party in government- are getting more abuse than Labour. Yet it was- in my view- Labour that was even more corrupted by the Murdoch money and the Murdoch blackmail. The testimony of James Murdoch- attempting to destroy as many current ministers as ...

There is no doubt that we are all in the middle of a serious economic crisis. However, in Britain this crisis is overlaid with a stupidity crisis too. The Daily Express is not noted as the intellectual paper in the UK, but their latest European scare story is more or less total fiction. "Senior Eurocrats" are apparently "plotting to destroy Britain"- even though there is not a shred of evidence for the conspiracy the Express is determined to unmask. It is total crap. It is a paranoid pack of lies either by fools who know no better or by crooks who are deliberately lying. Either way it is a total disgrace that this garbage can be published in any newspaper that professes to have any concern for the truth. And that is the problem, the crisis in Britain is as much a crisis of the MEDIA as of the politicians that are taking the blame. When such utter tripe can be presented as a serious contribution to the national debate, and no one condemns the bastards who publis...

The rather tactless comments by newly elected Francois Hollande about the UK are not an auspicious beginning to the new relationship between London and Paris at a time when the pressure on the Euro is reaching another crisis. The likely inability of Greece to form a new government without a further election, and the substantial chance that even a new election will not result in a stable government anyway, probably puts paid to Greek membership of the single currency. Now the Euro faces the moment of truth. The German response to Hollande's political posturing: "No changes, no renegotiation" is going to create real problems. Either they are serious, in which case the lack of flexibility bodes very badly for the Paris-Berlin axis, or they are not, in which case the pressure on the northern tier members, such as Estonia- which has already had to double its national debt in order to subscribe capital to the rescue funds- Finland and the Netherlands, will increase sharpl...

May day is a day of ancient pagan revelry that traditionally marks the beginning of summer. In the Celtic world it is Beltane, in the Nordic countries it is Spring day. For the last century or so, it has also been the international workers day. This Mayday in London, the usual demonstrations were held in Trafalgar Square. To my disgust, I noticed that one of the largest flags draped around Nelson's Column was the flag of the defunct Soviet Union- the Hammer and Sickle. This was the flag of a system that killed and enslaved more people than Hitler- and under its Chinese, Cuban and North Korean versions continues to do so. This is the flag whose false values oppressed trade union rights- crushing the Polish Solidarity trade union, and any other workers organisation that dared to challenge the vindictive power of the one party state. The fact that so called workers representatives can rally under such a vile symbol of murderous repression is a bit more than willful ignoran...

In Tallinn Spring is slowly advancing into Summer. The Sun begins to offer some warmth and the days are growing long. In London the weather is less good. The rain and storms, that seem inevitable once a drought is declared, are clearly depressing the national mood. In the year of the Diamond Jubilee and the London Olympic games, the national mood still remains rather bleak. Although the local elections will probably be a nasty mid term shock to the coalition government, the elections that really matter to Britain are happening elsewhere. The likely change of government in Paris may see significant changes in French policy- and the demise of the Sarkozy part of the "Merkozy" partnership may simply be the prelude to a change in government in Berlin next year. Europeans have grown weary and disillusioned with the austerity program that has been imposed at the behest of the right wing-led government in Germany. The meltdown in Spain and the continuing crises in Greece and P...

The tone of political debate in the UK over the past twenty years or so has grown ever more shrill and rancorous. This bitterness is partly, I believe, the result of the growing recognition that far from being all powerful, our political leaders have in fact ever less control over "events". Political leaders, especially on the left, still put forward the view that they alone can provide detailed policy solutions to the economic and social problems of the day. The Liberal Democrats have been no less guilty of this hubris than any other party. However, there are two critical differences between the Liberal Democrats and the other political parties. The first is that the Liberal Democrats recognized a long time ago that the problem of British politics is not in the party- or parties- of government, but in the system of government. We argue for major reforms of the constitution in order to create a political system that is more accountable to the voters and more ...

James Murdoch is already under criminal investigation in the United States. His testimony to the Leveson enquiry yesterday suggests that he should face a series of trails in the UK too. That is not particularly surprising. What is surprising is the manner in which he has decided to face his fate. Essentially he has clearly decided to "take as many of the bastards with him" as he can, starting with Jeremy Hunt- who, Murdoch suggested, had stepped well outside the line of good standards and even the law in his relationship with News International. Perhaps Mr. Murdoch thinks that his display of revenge will cow others, probably equally implicated in the growing outrage against the Murdoch empire. Personally, I think Murdoch fils  should now be prosecuted to the full limits of the law, and if the evidence supports it, so should everyone else in the Murdoch organisations. Murdoch may be trying for some kind of mutual assured destruction: but our Parliament and our laws mu...

The likely change of President in Paris is now coupled with severe tension in the government in the Netherlands. As in 2005, these two founder members are questioning the long standing consensus in the European Union. Usually, when asked about the future of the Euro, the response from officials and from many national governments is that the solution is "more Europe". This is short hand for creating the common institutions, such as a treasury and a system of fiscal transfers, that were not created when the single currency was first established. The problem about creating such powerful new institutions is that they lack democratic political legitimacy. They may be the most obvious and practical solutions to the crisis, but they are not sufficiently supported in most countries to allow them to happen. The political problems in France and the Netherlands only underlines the difficulties in gaining democratic support for the necessary policies to allow the Euro to survive. T...

The French Presidential election has thrown up something of a conundrum. Nicolas Sarkozy did not lead in the first round, as he was expected to, and that is supposed to send a bad signal to his campaign. On the other hand, as I predicted here in January, The Front National made advances even from the record result they gained under Marine Le Pen's father, Jean Marie. That 19% of the vote is now up for grabs, and the gap between the President and his Socialist challenger is wafer thin. Francois Hollande has to favourite- he has less hair than Sarkozy (which has often been a signifier in the past- the exact opposite of the US elections), and of course he is leading in the first round. On the other hand the markets have taken it badly- and even the French might yet balk at the end of the Franco-German motor, which the early exit of Sarkozy might bring in its wake. 

Spring has come to Estonia, and it is like the lights have been switched on after the long (overlong) winter. As always, your heart leaps as the huge chains of migrating geese take to the skies, and here and there a newly arrived solitary stork wanders along the field gullies looking for frogs. The grass visibly greens from day to day, and the floors of the budding forest are bright with snow drops and the primrose-like blue flowers, known rather prosaically in Estonian as "blue flowers". Soon the swallows too will be here and the white nights of June will echo to the Estonians enjoying the brief pleasures of the glorious northern summer. Yet work must continue, and I head to Parnu, the summer capital of Estonia, amidst April showers, to take part in a conference to discuss the future options in Estonian finance. For me, Estonian finance, as so much of Estonian society, stands at something of a cross roads. In many ways the last twenty years have been a series of exams for ...

The Economist is a serious magazine, but it is also known for a sense of humour. The latest edition carries a pretty well balanced article on the costs of a separate Scotland . There are obvious pros and cons about the idea of independence. I myself, on balance, am against a totally separate Scottish state, but I will admit that there are some positive aspects. It is just that on balance I don't think the potential benefits of independence stack up against the potential costs.  Many of my SNP friends obviously think differently- and we have many good natured debates about it. Alex Salmond, on the other hand, thinks that any one who does not support his version of the Scottish separatist agenda is solely motivated by the basest motives and is probably either a traitor (if Scottish) or an Imperialist (if from elsewhere in the UK). His typically bombastic attack on the Economist "they will rue the day they thought they would have a joke at Scotland's  expense" ...

My recent trip to the UK reminded me just how difficult the economic situation remains for a large number of people. The simultaneous increase in taxes and cuts in services is coming at a time when it is clear that many, if not most, pension schemes need dramatic increases in savings in order to provide a financially secure retirement. Those on the left argue that this policy of austerity is counter-productive and that- if anything- government expenditure should be increased through the downturn. Yet the reality is that the global investment markets will not provide capital to fund this spending splurge: austerity is not optional, it is compulsory. And the worst is yet to come, the impact of the spending reductions will take time to come through the system, and although emergency action is saving many pension - including public sector pension schemes- from total bankruptcy the huge number of interest-only mortgages that have been created during the crisis provides a long term threa...

The political conventional wisdom in Britain is that the current coalition is an aberration. Sooner or later either the Conservatives or more likely, Labour, will be able to govern alone. This will be-it is argued- a return to politics as usual. I think this represents a failure of imagination. I also think it underestimates just how difficult the next decade is going to be. Europe as a whole is already in an economic crisis  which is the equal of the hungry 1930s. It is a crisis that represents a sum of failures, financial, economic and political. The fundamental problems- wrong risk models for banks, wrong levels of leverage in the wider economy and inflexible political policies and institutions- have not been addressed. Despite the best efforts of financial, economic and political leaders, the process of breakdown has continued and is even accelerating. Much that we have taken for granted is now being tested to destruction. The criticism that has been laid against George O...

The release of the latest revision to GDP growth in the UK makes grim reading. The British economy slowed by more than expected, and the outlook for recovery is flickering at best. Incomes have not kept pace with inflation, and the increase in taxes and cuts in government services has helped to cause a sharp contraction in the general British standard of living. Even for those on well above average incomes, costs such as insurance, university tuition fees and now energy prices are really hurting the middle class. For those below median income it is house rents and petrol prices which are beginning to have a crippling impact. The standard of living in London even for those on median income levels is now exceptionally poor.  So how come housing costs in Central London have continued to rise? The short answer is that it is not the British buying. Russians, Arabs, Chinese and others have been buying bolt holes in London, that is certainly true, but more than that, it seems that the...