Cicero's Songs

Sretna nova godina to you too, James

2011-12-30T10:20:13.699Z

Sretna nova godina to you too, James

"Nothing will happen while they still live.&q...

2011-12-27T15:49:43.259Z

"Nothing will happen while they still live." Grammatically, I'm concerned: but maybe you are into "we are not amused". And I'll skip over the implied threat, as I judge you do not mean what you write to have that interpretation: I hope none who read here think otherwise, or claim such an interpretation to justify anything.

On the issue that 'they' are an impediment, presumably to political progress, I disagree.

There is, in the modern world, a long way between head of state and head of government; the British form of constitutional monarchy is (IMHO) pretty OK. Our problems, such as they are (and I do not dispute they are many and serious), rest with government: not where you claim.

That you see, even create, impediments where there are none is (as I view it) an excuse for inaction or ineffectiveness, rather than a cause.

Best regards

The above comment shows you what the reaction to S...

2011-12-23T18:05:12.226Z

The above comment shows you what the reaction to Scottish independence will be from London. They'll try desperately to behave as though nothing has happened, just as they do with the empire that's gone (and with the Irish Republic for that matter).

I (English and living in England) will be sad to see the end of the union, but the London clique have driven them to it over many years.

As England accounts for more than 90% of the UK po...

2011-12-23T17:46:37.128Z

As England accounts for more than 90% of the UK population and GDP, the end of the Union would hardly be a massive change. The choice for Wales of reintegration into one system of government or complete independence could well lead to the end of the experiment in devolution. As for Northern Ireland its historical links are with Scotland, perhaps they would be willing to take it as a leaving present!

Hi Cicero, it is lovely to learn about how you rea...

2011-12-20T03:55:23.439Z

Hi Cicero, it is lovely to learn about how you read Havel's essays and letters as a teenager. Do watch the fish-head movie featuring Vaclav Havel too. www.fisheadmovie.com .

Never bought into his politics but admired his wri...

2011-12-16T09:57:17.397Z

Never bought into his politics but admired his writing and his wit....Just as a day of worthy labour brings peaceful sleep so a life well lived brings welcome death...Da Vinci..

Gray Dourman
www.magichelix.com

Cicero, while I agree with a lot of this, I was st...

2011-12-15T16:40:48.926Z

Cicero, while I agree with a lot of this, I was startled by the following:

"Over £18 billion is spent on simply collecting tax. That represents about 8% of revenue"

That implies total tax revenue is around £225 billion. Surely it is closer to £550 billion?

While I agree entirely that £18 billion is far too large a sum, and needs reducing, it doesn't strike me as very likely that it would produce the percentage scale economies you imply. Although in net terms it might do so by increasing tax take due to the reduction in tax evasion and increased economic activity resulting from reduced bureaucracy.

I find it impossible to avoid remarking that the p...

2011-12-14T09:10:09.146Z

I find it impossible to avoid remarking that the present corruption of football (and cricket) can be traced to the authorities succumbing to the temptation from the Murdoch Empire which promised them riches beyond the dreams of avarice. The results are there for us to see (or not any more in my case).

Our useless,powerless and pantomime PM now knows t...

2011-12-13T19:50:43.176Z

Our useless,powerless and pantomime PM now knows that the bounce that he received is fall less than that that Vague,once again,had convinced him.

He may also have found out that whilst he is stuck with Clegg bercause our useless,powerless and pantomime PM is so useless, powerless and pantomime that he cannot force a General election by his breaking up the coalition whilst Clegg can either attempt to form another government without the Nasty party or force a General election.!!

Clegg, if he took my advice would not wish to break up the coalition because,as you alluded to, he now holds the power and is in a stronger position to dilute Nasty Party policy.

The rug pulling can wait until Clegg has got a war that he can win (NHS,perhaps !!)

I believe that our Useless, powerless and pantomime PM went to watch his son play a mouse in a school play before he left to usse his veto.

He obviously was watching intently as he appears to have picked up some hints !!!

There we go. The debt word. You clearly don'...

2011-12-12T21:33:29.291Z

There we go. The debt word.

You clearly don't understand the difference between debt and deficit, or its a deliberate attempt to deceive.

Deficit = rate at which borrowing (not debt) increases over the course of the year.

Debt - what gets quoted is borrowing - gilts.

What is omitted is the true debt, which is around 7,000 bn, not 1,050 bn (which is just gilts)

The EU deal means that the current deficit (overspend) of 140 bn a year, has to be cut to 7 bn a year maximum.

Now the lib dems want in to this deal.

If you're a lib dem, then the onus on you is to tell us how that deficit is cut.

Spending cuts or tax increase, or a combination are the only choices bar printing lots of money. However, if you print, then you can't give out inflation linked rises in wages, benefits or pensions, because that just increases spending.

So when you say, cut 143 bn from the debt, that would mean cuts in spending of double that, or tax rises of double that. 286 bn of cuts.

[PS, if you are confused, I'm not surprised. The BBC carries on pushing it, even though I've had three complaints upheld about them making the same basic error]

Chris Hune wants to turn the UK in a giant wind fa...

2011-12-12T20:04:07.390Z

Chris Hune wants to turn the UK in a giant wind farm. Enough said really.

@ Lord Bagger, I guess a self-confessed "Econ...

2011-12-12T20:02:41.462Z

@ Lord Bagger, I guess a self-confessed "Economic and social liberal" would not care if we cut £143 billion from the current debt in one year, but the rest of his party might and this is of course the logical part of being in a party in which, when Europe says "jump", you ask "how high?". A great irony, given the centre of gravity within the lib dems is left of centre and a lot of them are unhappy about the current debt reduction proposals, let alone what the Europeans propose...

I see... off the record, there are rumours about H...

2011-12-12T15:52:56.174Z

I see...
off the record, there are rumours about HSBC... what's your opinion on HSBC? I would have thought that bank, ot of all of them, was pretty safe....

I think we should certainly be thinking about a ne...

2011-12-12T14:27:15.746Z

I think we should certainly be thinking about a new leader.

It is dangerous for officials to name banks they t...

2011-12-12T09:28:07.800Z

It is dangerous for officials to name banks they think are in trouble, because it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. However it is quite clear that those banks who have been trading more and more collateral at the ECB discount window are in the most trouble. Market rumours swirl around Commerzbank, Soc Gen, Credit Agicole, BNP and several others. Although it remains to be seen how accurate these rumours are, it is clear that all of these banks need to improve their capital position urgently and significantly

I'd hoped the Liberal presence would have buff...

2011-12-11T17:47:46.021Z

I'd hoped the Liberal presence would have buffered our country against the worst excesses of the Tory right. In practice it has accelerated the process.
It begs the question what would the Tories have to do for the Liberal leadership to leave the coalition?

Over the course of the past three weeks, several o...

2011-12-11T13:14:49.849Z

Over the course of the past three weeks, several of the largest banks in Europe have come close to collapse, and they are still on life support. Without further emergency capital, we will still see a major European bank failure within coming weeks or even days, unless immediate remedial action is taken.

OMG!! which ones????and which one?????

No. The Lib Dems need to explain why they want to ...

2011-12-11T10:47:59.779Z

No. The Lib Dems need to explain why they want to join.

For example there is a cap on deficits of 0.5% of GDP. 7 bn for the UK.

Current deficit, 150 bn.

Overnight cuts needed 143 bn.

The lib dems need to say what they are going to cut.

Well said. This is very worrying.

2011-12-10T17:37:18.472Z

Well said. This is very worrying.

I do not think that the Lib Dems should bring down...

2011-12-10T17:22:24.275Z

I do not think that the Lib Dems should bring down this Tory-led Government just now.

However there is another scenario in which Cameron gets some immediate bounce from his appalling disasterous decision and from this bounce decides to disband the coalition and go to ther country in the hope that the dire consequences of his decision will take some time to show up clearly.

So the Lib Dems have now got to make it known,in a very public way why they disagree with this self-interested decision and keep drumming out this message, in line with the Labour party.

If the public can be made to realise that this is a con-trick and that Cameron has no where to go now other than to leave the EU or call a referendum which might be the same thing.

This decision puts at risk 40% of our trade (approx.£143B), will increase unemployment by approx another 3m jobs. It also removes the .clout; that membership gives us in our dealings with non-eu countries such as China,India etc.

It also puts at risk our 'special relationship with the USA,who may not be as interested in doing trade with us if we are an isolated entity.
There is also the restrictions that this would only place on the movement of British workers and on pension rights and healthcare of, particularly,retired folk.

There is also the, perhaps lesser advantages such as EU arrest warrants and the fight against organised crime.

It is now time for the Lib Dems,whilst remainiong within the coalition, to make these cases, to continue their resisting the Tory policy on NHS and other 'nasty party; policies that, so far, the Lib Dems have diluted.

Once the public accept that Cameron has made a serious error in using his veto to protect the city of London's bankers, who caused the mess in the first place, at the cost of the Countries interest then that is the time to n pull the rug and watch our useless,powerless and Pantomime PM sink without trace !!!!

"The failure in Brussels shows that we can no...

2011-12-10T17:20:07.777Z

"The failure in Brussels shows that we can not prevent the Conservatives acting on their basest anti-European instincts. The damage that this will do to our country is severe and permanent."

Leaving the coalition now and having a general election will result in a tory majority government, with probably even more Eurosceptics than at present - I fail to see how that is going to improve the country's situation.

Furthermore it is far too early to say whether or not the proposals to save the Euro will work - so far too early to make decisions on the future of the coalition. Because it is possible that staying on the sidelines might turn out to have been the right thing to do.

The UK's biggest mistake is the historical one of not having got properly involved when the original European Economic Community was first mooted and then created - by playing a full role then we might have had more influence on the outcome.

As I said on Facebook: "Its so depressing. E...

2011-12-10T16:53:35.039Z

As I said on Facebook:

"Its so depressing. Every which way we turn we hear about the Liberal Democrats blocking this or blocking that, and yet somehow a European veto gets through the net."

Will nobody think of the Europhile Conservatives?

With respect, this is irrelevant. I came to your ...

2011-12-09T23:19:09.286Z

With respect, this is irrelevant. I came to your blog looking for a reasoned discussion of the consequences of Cameron's veto and how it would really affect the future of Britain in the UK, and the Eurozone countries.

Something like your last post on Thursday - where if I read it correctly you did urge our PM to veto under certain circumstances.

I've completely failed to find any intelligent and detailed discussion of the facts - the MSM reporting has almost entirely consisted of repeating quotes from European politicians and other newspapers.

Please try again: I for one, as a pro-European (and German-speaking) liberal, am deeply confused about what is happening and need insight from someone with the depth of experience and closeness to the issues you show to help me understand.

Not entirely certain that I agree with every point...

2011-12-09T16:58:22.320Z

Not entirely certain that I agree with every point you make here but my quibbles are minor: for example, I don't think that everyone has the unhealthy disregard for the Germans than you claim.

Furthermore, while the Eurosceptics and their feverish chums in the press (mostly but not always the tabloids) rack up a consistently horrendous din, it does the more thoughtful a disservice to believe that they are brainwashed by it all. It is a grubby descent to wander through the comments accompanying stories in the Daily Mail, for instance, but the consolation is that they represent the views of a self-selecting group with little imagination and too much time on their hands.

BUT ANYWAY … that's not the reason for writing. I've noticed that your output has increased of late – there's some pretty rich material to deal with after all – and this is a good thing. Yours is one of the two blogs on my newsfeed that I turn to with the most enthusiasm. As I said, I don't always agree but the educative nature of your posts is always welcome; especially on the questions of a new state, Estonia, Putin's Russsia and your home thoughts from abroad concerning the financial system.

I seem to remember you had some doubts about continuing a year or so ago. Please banish them ...

.. although you could, perhaps, make more effort to engage with your readers. Such criticism counts as abuse in our house.

Cicero-as you must surely know, I was writing abou...

2011-12-06T13:12:12.109Z

Cicero-as you must surely know, I was writing about federation for the UK, not how the LibDems organise themselves.

Anyway, dream on about a LibDem recovery in Scotland if you must deceive yourself, but Rennie's approach, portraying his party as the third unionist party, is digging the grave for the unburied corpse I pointed to in my earlier reply.